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Genmab — Marts 2021

Planlagt Fastgjort Låst Flyttet Genmab
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  • BulderB Offline
    BulderB Offline
    Bulder
    wrote on sidst redigeret af
    #664

    Hvis vi antager dkk 1 mio/pt for et fase 3, koster et fase 3 med 300 pts omkring 50 mio $. 6 af dem og vi er stadig pænt under milliarden ($) i forsøgsomkostninger.

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    • G Offline
      G Offline
      GeorgeBest
      wrote on sidst redigeret af
      #665

      Winkel har jo allerede indikeret Epcoritamab bliver Genmabs vigtigste asset. Så ved 5 mia $ omsætning til Epcoritamab, så er den hurdle vel passeret...

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      • G Offline
        G Offline
        GeorgeBest
        wrote on sidst redigeret af
        #666

        Spørgsmålet er om 1 mio per patient ikke er for højt. Dette er fra Google: Oncology trials show the highest average per-patient cost, with an average per-patient cost of $59,500. Oncology trials also typically require fewer participants than average, so any fixed costs are spread over a smaller number of participants.

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        • E Offline
          E Offline
          E_L
          wrote on sidst redigeret af
          #667

          it will also depend on the length of the trial (determined by severity of disease/ how deadly it is); epco PhIII estimates 3yrs to completion , compare to Dara trials now some 8yrs+

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          • nohopeN Offline
            nohopeN Offline
            nohope
            wrote on sidst redigeret af
            #668

            I love that nobody assumes that Epcoritamab could fail.

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            • E Offline
              E Offline
              E_L
              wrote on sidst redigeret af
              #669

              offcourse it could fail. but i 'hope' it doesn't 😉 and results so far look promissing

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              • D Offline
                D Offline
                deleted-user
                wrote on sidst redigeret af
                #670

                I assume ....... everybody knows that term and don't want to use too energy on that part of the discussion. When you invest you can lose your investment

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                • SolsenS Offline
                  SolsenS Offline
                  Solsen
                  wrote on sidst redigeret af
                  #671

                  Selvfølgelig kan analytikeren godt lave et kvalificeret estimat på hvor stor en del af omsætningen, der rammer bundlinienDet
                  bliver de jo nødt til 😉

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                  • troldmandenT Offline
                    troldmandenT Offline
                    troldmanden
                    wrote on sidst redigeret af
                    #672

                    GB Jan HAR bekræftet 1 mio per pts. At det er det beløb man skal regne med. Han bekræftede det sidste år på PI QA

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                    • troldmandenT Offline
                      troldmandenT Offline
                      troldmanden
                      wrote on sidst redigeret af
                      #673

                      og jeg er bestemt ikke enig i at epcro er mere værd om 2 år end dara der på det tidspunkt nok er tæt på at være top 10 pt bedste sælgende lægemidler. Jeg er faktisk ikke sikker på om epcro bliver mere værd end dara på noget tidspunkt, idet forventningerne til dara topsalg er så meget højere

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                      • G Offline
                        G Offline
                        GeorgeBest
                        wrote on sidst redigeret af
                        #674

                        Winkel har udtalt at Epcoritamab forventes at blive det mest værdifulde produkt for Genmab...

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                        • exitnuE Offline
                          exitnuE Offline
                          exitnu
                          wrote on sidst redigeret af
                          #675

                          @nohope - god pointe.

                          Clinical trial success rates by therapeutic area as of 2020: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201162/clinical-trial-success-rates-by-therapeutic-area/

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                          • E Offline
                            E Offline
                            E_L
                            wrote on sidst redigeret af
                            #676

                            ha, i just read JPmorgan increased chance for epco approval to 36% on the start of the PhIII
                            😉

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                            • E Offline
                              E Offline
                              E_L
                              wrote on sidst redigeret af
                              #677

                              https://pharmaintelligence.informa.com/~/media/informa-shop-window/pharma/2020/files/article-packs/jp-morgan-2021--day-3.pdf p 48

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                              • E Offline
                                E Offline
                                E_L
                                wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                #678

                                the reason i think it is higher in this case is 1) there was a lot on interest in epco according to Jan (I don't think he was lying there) 2) Abbvie will have done due diligence (so a 2nd party due diligence) 3) initial results looked good 4) doctors enthusiasm around the conferences on the initial data

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                                • BulderB Offline
                                  BulderB Offline
                                  Bulder
                                  wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                  #679

                                  That's what we are all hoping for. Succes in both epco and gen1046 will pave the way for citi's blue sky. But we all also know that there is no guarantee.

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                                  • SolsenS Offline
                                    SolsenS Offline
                                    Solsen
                                    wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                    #680

                                    We should not forget CD37. Think its undervalued. We have seen very robust preclinical data.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • BulderB Offline
                                      BulderB Offline
                                      Bulder
                                      wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                      #681

                                      Yes, and CD40

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                                      • BulderB Offline
                                        BulderB Offline
                                        Bulder
                                        wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                        #682

                                        I have a Q for Winkel regarding CD40

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                                        • DarvinD Offline
                                          DarvinD Offline
                                          Darvin
                                          wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                          #683

                                          Enig GB 14.02 - han talte ikke om hvorvidt Epco som produkt skulle blive større end Dara. Kun om værdi for Genmab

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