Genmab — Februar 2021

[E_L]

So, if i assume an fx rate of 6.6, i get dkk4.524, so a difference due to Halo of ~dkk105m

[E_L]

so, the fx rate matters and we have to make an assumption for the % sales that are Faspro for 2020, so it is difficult to get it right

[Bulder]

But does it matter. DKK 105m is 1,60 per share

[JørgenVarnæs]

Ok I guess there are a lot of FX unknowns here. How are RoW royalties treated? Are royalties calculated on a daily basis or when payment is made quarterly (im guessing)

[JørgenVarnæs]

in the WebCast didn’t we find out the GEN part of Halo royalty is as high as 2 - 2,5 pct points?

[E_L]

@Bulder I think the uncertanty /panick about this has not helped the stock this week, so i am trying to quantify it, and show, like you do , that it isn't worth dropping the market cap with a few billion $$

[Bulder]

OK

[E_L]

But say it would be 4 times (assuming only 1 full quarter was Faspro) we'll get to ~6dkk per share, say for 10 years, forget NPV, so say dkk60 dkk per share effect?

[JørgenVarnæs]

Have a look at MOR, REGN, SGEN - they have had similar developments YTD

[E_L]

@JV that is the % i would like to replicate. Genmab did not confirm that %

[E_L]

Pagano answer was useless

[E_L]

fair enough, but many analysts dropped their targets more then i would have expected, trying to understand

[JørgenVarnæs]

Hang on - ill dive into the spreadsheet with the quarterly nos

[JørgenVarnæs]

..and have a look at those comps I mentioned - we don’t have a reason to feel special

[E_L]

Genmab investors should always feel special

[StockBull]

Surely interesting with development of MOR, REGN, SGEN similar to Genmab but I would say Genmab have better balance sheet and in that way special with a big tank of money

[E_L]

ECB’s Schnabel: A Rise In Real Long-Term Rates At The Early Stages Of The Recovery May Withdraw Vital Policy Support Too Early And Too Abruptly. ECB May Need To Add Support If Yields Hurt Growth. ECB Still Has 'Some Room' To Cut Interest Rates.

[StockBull]

and MOR still got high PE of 95 versus sgen 47 and genmab 29.7 all info from tradingview. Strange

[JørgenVarnæs]

Ok - i’ve been diddling with the spreadsheet

[JørgenVarnæs]

First I found the USDDKK rates. I calculated the quarterly FX rate as simple average of the daily averages and i got: