Genmab — Februar 2021

[E_L]

@Bulder I think the uncertanty /panick about this has not helped the stock this week, so i am trying to quantify it, and show, like you do , that it isn't worth dropping the market cap with a few billion $$

[Bulder]

OK

[E_L]

But say it would be 4 times (assuming only 1 full quarter was Faspro) we'll get to ~6dkk per share, say for 10 years, forget NPV, so say dkk60 dkk per share effect?

[JørgenVarnæs]

Have a look at MOR, REGN, SGEN - they have had similar developments YTD

[E_L]

@JV that is the % i would like to replicate. Genmab did not confirm that %

[E_L]

Pagano answer was useless

[E_L]

fair enough, but many analysts dropped their targets more then i would have expected, trying to understand

[JørgenVarnæs]

Hang on - ill dive into the spreadsheet with the quarterly nos

[JørgenVarnæs]

..and have a look at those comps I mentioned - we don’t have a reason to feel special

[E_L]

Genmab investors should always feel special

[StockBull]

Surely interesting with development of MOR, REGN, SGEN similar to Genmab but I would say Genmab have better balance sheet and in that way special with a big tank of money

[E_L]

ECB’s Schnabel: A Rise In Real Long-Term Rates At The Early Stages Of The Recovery May Withdraw Vital Policy Support Too Early And Too Abruptly. ECB May Need To Add Support If Yields Hurt Growth. ECB Still Has 'Some Room' To Cut Interest Rates.

[StockBull]

and MOR still got high PE of 95 versus sgen 47 and genmab 29.7 all info from tradingview. Strange

[JørgenVarnæs]

Ok - i’ve been diddling with the spreadsheet

[JørgenVarnæs]

First I found the USDDKK rates. I calculated the quarterly FX rate as simple average of the daily averages and i got:

[JørgenVarnæs]

Usddkk Q1 6,77, Q2 6,78, Q3 6,37 and Q4 6,24 giving a yearly usddkk rate of 6,54

[gentogen]

Til alm info var min primitive udregning forleden baseret på midtpunktet af 2021 dara salgsestimat = 32.4M (5.4US) og ved at estimere 55% FASPRO fik jeg 17.8M DK, hvoraf 5% så er 890MIO hvoraf Genmabs andel på450mio er 50%. Jeg ved ikke, om man kan regne sådan, men det var et slag på tasken

[JørgenVarnæs]

With that i get a yearly USD royalty of usd 675,5m

[E_L]

for 2020 $4.190?

[JørgenVarnæs]

But i’m a little uncertain about these nos because the Q4 royalty in my calcs is 19,4% (based on usddkk 6,24 and quarterly royalty of dkk 1521m