Genmab — Februar 2021

deleted-user

@E L I was just trying to catch up the calculation not intending to offend anyone

E_L

offcourse not, i got that, just telling you what i am trying to do

deleted-user

... offcourse

JørgenVarnæs

Do they mention the royalty amount in usd?

StockBull

https://nbg1.your-objectstorage.com/proinvestor-dev/forum/boards/91422_Skaermbillede_2021_02_26_150451_big_picture.png big picture genmab trend. som det kan ses er RSI ved at være på niveau som da corona krakket var i bung marts 2020

JørgenVarnæs

I can only see the DKK

E_L

yes, 4419. I calculate $685.5m according to the tiers for $4190 sales

E_L

So, if i assume an fx rate of 6.6, i get dkk4.524, so a difference due to Halo of ~dkk105m

E_L

so, the fx rate matters and we have to make an assumption for the % sales that are Faspro for 2020, so it is difficult to get it right

Bulder

But does it matter. DKK 105m is 1,60 per share

JørgenVarnæs

Ok I guess there are a lot of FX unknowns here. How are RoW royalties treated? Are royalties calculated on a daily basis or when payment is made quarterly (im guessing)

JørgenVarnæs

in the WebCast didn’t we find out the GEN part of Halo royalty is as high as 2 - 2,5 pct points?

E_L

@Bulder I think the uncertanty /panick about this has not helped the stock this week, so i am trying to quantify it, and show, like you do , that it isn't worth dropping the market cap with a few billion $$

Bulder

OK

E_L

But say it would be 4 times (assuming only 1 full quarter was Faspro) we'll get to ~6dkk per share, say for 10 years, forget NPV, so say dkk60 dkk per share effect?

JørgenVarnæs

Have a look at MOR, REGN, SGEN - they have had similar developments YTD

E_L

@JV that is the % i would like to replicate. Genmab did not confirm that %

E_L

Pagano answer was useless

E_L

fair enough, but many analysts dropped their targets more then i would have expected, trying to understand

JørgenVarnæs

Hang on - ill dive into the spreadsheet with the quarterly nos