Genmab — Oktober 2019

[E_L]

as for maintenance; 2020 may be a bit too soon to see an effect of that, but for future projections i think it is waaaay undervalued

[E_L]

and nobody even talks about smoldering in their analysis

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

It amazes me that no analysts have a focus on smoldering at all.

[E_L]

it is probably a bit like solids; nobody puts any value on it, but if it fails they drop their price targets by 20%

[Sukkeralf]

The problem also is that the market does not exist yet - so hard to put numbers on - and to figure out what impact it will have on MM patients. I guess we need more data first

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

E.L. You should not joke this kind of thing here in the chat.

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

Sugaralf. You're probably right.

[bibob]

No E L. Shame on you.

[E_L]

[Bulder]

Dara for maintenance is not approved anywhere. As for smoldering, you only treat high risk pts, about 15% of pts. Limited market. Bowers value smoldering with 47 dkk.

[Bulder]

... out of 1650

[Sukkeralf]

And the problem is still that you treat people that are not sick yet - can you get reimbursement for that. And what kind of treatment would you go after - delaying the MM or a possible cure (like 4 combination therapy maybe). I think its way too early........

[E_L]

Dara isn't the full 1650... and probability weighted; if 100% approved it will get close to 3L and 4L

[Bulder]

Rather half of 3. and 4. line

[Solsen]

I belive generic Revlimid could kick in the S-curve

[E_L]

all valid points Sukkeralf. Just remember, it is one of JNJ focus points for Dara (like SC and amyloidosis). If they put money into it, they will expect a pay out at some time

[Bulder]

Amyloidosis and smoldering MM is about same market size.

[Sukkeralf]

E L - that goes for everything you send in the clinic. But you still need data to judge the potential

[Sukkeralf]

And smoldering is particularly hard because people are not sick yet

[E_L]

I am not arguing with you on this. Merely pointing out that I think there is a good chance this will produce future revenues. You know as well as I do that there is a lot of discussion on this topic between the myeloma experts. Let them fight it out