Genmab — Oktober 2019

E_L

i think we may be talking about different curves lol, i was more thinking about the effect from 1st line inflows now, where they start on weekly dosing, then later to bi-weekly and then once every four weeks

Sukkeralf

https://endpts.com/is-there-a-recipe-for-ma-success-the-best-and-worst-buyout-deals-in-the-past-decade-offer-some-keys-to-success-and-failure/

E_L

as for maintenance; 2020 may be a bit too soon to see an effect of that, but for future projections i think it is waaaay undervalued

E_L

and nobody even talks about smoldering in their analysis

Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør

It amazes me that no analysts have a focus on smoldering at all.

E_L

it is probably a bit like solids; nobody puts any value on it, but if it fails they drop their price targets by 20%

Sukkeralf

The problem also is that the market does not exist yet - so hard to put numbers on - and to figure out what impact it will have on MM patients. I guess we need more data first

Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør

E.L. You should not joke this kind of thing here in the chat.

Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør

Sugaralf. You're probably right.

bibob

No E L. Shame on you.

E_L

Bulder

Dara for maintenance is not approved anywhere. As for smoldering, you only treat high risk pts, about 15% of pts. Limited market. Bowers value smoldering with 47 dkk.

Bulder

... out of 1650

Sukkeralf

And the problem is still that you treat people that are not sick yet - can you get reimbursement for that. And what kind of treatment would you go after - delaying the MM or a possible cure (like 4 combination therapy maybe). I think its way too early........

E_L

Dara isn't the full 1650... and probability weighted; if 100% approved it will get close to 3L and 4L

Bulder

Rather half of 3. and 4. line

Solsen

I belive generic Revlimid could kick in the S-curve

E_L

all valid points Sukkeralf. Just remember, it is one of JNJ focus points for Dara (like SC and amyloidosis). If they put money into it, they will expect a pay out at some time

Bulder

Amyloidosis and smoldering MM is about same market size.

Sukkeralf

E L - that goes for everything you send in the clinic. But you still need data to judge the potential