LPG: Kursfesten forsætter
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Jeg ser et cyklisk rederiselskab, som vil få en god indtjening pga høje rater i et stramt marked i nogle år endnu. Det vil give kursstigninger og gode udbytter. Hvor kursen ender ved jeg ikke. Giver normalt heller ikke bud på den slags.
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Som jeg fortalte i Millionærklubben:
"LPG shipping largely unaffected by attack on Saudi Arabia".
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Interview på Børsen Play om LPG-rederierne:
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Jeg vil kraftigt anbefale Joakim Hannisdahl fra Cleaves Securities, hvis I ikke allerede kender ham.
Han er shippinganalytiker med norsk bias (perfekt!). Han analyserer olietank, tørlast, LPG og LNG. Desværre ikke produkttank.
Joakim Hannisdahl udgiver masser af rapporter, der kan hentes gratis, hvis man registrer sig. Hans track record er uovertruffen. Bemærk dog, at jeg ikke har uafhængig bekræftelse af dette, men jeg hælder til, at Joakim overvejende sandsynligt taler sandt.
Jeg er ret vild med hans kvantitative metode. Han laver prognoser på de fremtidige rater inden for sektorerne, og anvender herefter dette som et hovedindput i analysen af selskaberne.
Her er en et link til hans twitter profil.
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Helt enig Delfin. Jeg følger også Joakim.
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jeg var lige inde og checke hans week mail for uge 40
Han skriver dog om produkttank, under afnittet med Oil Tankers: "We expect product tankers to follow suit as coated vessels turning dirty thins the tonnage list."
Så han er ikke helt ignorant overfor produkttank
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Ny Shipping Weekly fra Joakim Hannisdahl oven på en fantastisk uge:
"Dry Bulk Shipping: The BDI fell 5% w/w, with similar losses in the sub-segments. We still believe we are close to a short-term trough, and that Capesize spot rates will rise in the coming months as Brazil again increases its iron ore exports from the current 27mt per month to 34mt tonnes. Panamaxes generally softened in the Atlantic as tonnage continued to build, but the rates ex-USG firmed slightly on rumors of Chinese buyers of grain.
Oil Tankers: What a week! VLCCs surging 71% to reach a 3-year-high. The impact from US sanctions on Chinese owners, a persistent risk premium after the Saudi attacks and scrubber retrofitting are the short-term catalysts. However, do not forget the underlying fundamental trends we have been highlighting for years: The lowest orderbook since 1997, increasing US exports, and the implications from IMO'20 are now highly tangible.
LNG Carriers: LNG carriers also wanting their spot in the limelight this week, with TFDEs quoted +16% w/w to $84k/d as we enter the high-season of the year. MEGI/XDFs now quoted at $100k/d, with Flex LNG (BUY/N185) said to have chartered out two vessels around the $100k/d mark.
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term."
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(www.cleaves.no)
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Jeg kom desværre fejlagtigt til at sige halvdelen af aktiekursen i Mio-klubben i fredags. Men ok...Overdrivelse fremmer forståelsen.
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Hvis alt andet glipper - så følg Frederiksen.
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Præcis. Herbjørn Hansson fra Nordic American Tankers har den samme "norske" udbyttepolitik med høje næsten uansvarlige udbytter. Jeg forventer mig høje udbytter fra NAT som følge af spotraterne på Suezmax.
Når NAT steg 20 % fredag, tror jeg, at det er fordi, at markedet ikke har glemt, hvordan NAT betaler udbytter i gode tider.
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Cleaves: Kursmål på Avance og BW LPG
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term.
Kursmål:
BWLPG: 89 NOK
Avance: 67 NOKhttps://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/5f38c3_63260fd6a80f488384bb101dac6eb868.pdf
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