Genmab — Oktober 2019

[StockBull]

12 Sept var knosensus 4.2 så Genmab guiding for 2020 lander over 4.5 bør det give 10 hurtige % på kursen

[E_L]

i am assuming we don't get PR and get approval somewhere end Q2

[Mcjean]

I dont agree in your 4,3 prediction its too conservative for my taste, are you working in bank?:-) I think they will guide 4.5 and correct it in dec. to 4.8 incl. discounts. Remember chairproblem, more maintenance patient and not 10.000 in clinical trials anymore or?

[StockBull]

JPM har 4.3 for 2020 og 5.1 for 2021.

[Mcjean]

Stockbull hvad er PE ved guiding på 4.5 og kursen ifølge dig? 40 og 2000?

[StockBull]

Kan ikke lige huske pe værdi og har ikke lige mit regneark med på ferie

[E_L]

i did use to work in a bank, yes and yes I do prefer to be a bit conservative and yes, I do remember

[E_L]

but as it now looks, we may only get SC benefit in H2 and after the initial 1st line boost, it may flatten out slightly due to that S curve effect -or however they called that

[StockBull]

men forventer pe omkring de 40 for 2020 med mindre der kommer en partneraftale som sparker røv skal PE opad igen

[Mcjean]

okie ty

[Mcjean]

The S curve suck's you know that;-) The curve dosent fit Genmab, we talk about a drug like insulin......most will have to take it the rest of there life. U(slang) more u treat u more on the drug. I think the non linear S-curve is too soon to develop because we will see a lot maintenance and we need to fill that cup up first maybe?

[Mcjean]

Perhaps in 2025 you will see the effect of the s-curve when the sale has reached 15bn$;-)

[E_L]

i think we may be talking about different curves lol, i was more thinking about the effect from 1st line inflows now, where they start on weekly dosing, then later to bi-weekly and then once every four weeks

[Sukkeralf]

https://endpts.com/is-there-a-recipe-for-ma-success-the-best-and-worst-buyout-deals-in-the-past-decade-offer-some-keys-to-success-and-failure/

[E_L]

as for maintenance; 2020 may be a bit too soon to see an effect of that, but for future projections i think it is waaaay undervalued

[E_L]

and nobody even talks about smoldering in their analysis

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

It amazes me that no analysts have a focus on smoldering at all.

[E_L]

it is probably a bit like solids; nobody puts any value on it, but if it fails they drop their price targets by 20%

[Sukkeralf]

The problem also is that the market does not exist yet - so hard to put numbers on - and to figure out what impact it will have on MM patients. I guess we need more data first

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

E.L. You should not joke this kind of thing here in the chat.