Genmab — Oktober 2019

[Mcjean]

Glem de 6, nærmere 4,5-4,8

[E_L]

price went up 5.1% in 2017, 4.9% in 2018 and 4% last januari. I think rebates/discounts probably stable from here into next year. Number of MM patients up 3-4%. So i assume an 8% rise , JUST from this.

[E_L]

2019/2018 growth Y/Y will probably land just above 50%

[E_L]

We will have 1st line in Europe, Japan and US

[E_L]

and SC in H2

[E_L]

you take your guesses, but I agree 4.3-4.5 should be possible

[Plimsoller]

I guess much depends on the schedule for SC. Unfortunately it does not look like it gets PR, or is that too early to say anything about?

[StockBull]

12 Sept var knosensus 4.2 så Genmab guiding for 2020 lander over 4.5 bør det give 10 hurtige % på kursen

[E_L]

i am assuming we don't get PR and get approval somewhere end Q2

[Mcjean]

I dont agree in your 4,3 prediction its too conservative for my taste, are you working in bank?:-) I think they will guide 4.5 and correct it in dec. to 4.8 incl. discounts. Remember chairproblem, more maintenance patient and not 10.000 in clinical trials anymore or?

[StockBull]

JPM har 4.3 for 2020 og 5.1 for 2021.

[Mcjean]

Stockbull hvad er PE ved guiding på 4.5 og kursen ifølge dig? 40 og 2000?

[StockBull]

Kan ikke lige huske pe værdi og har ikke lige mit regneark med på ferie

[E_L]

i did use to work in a bank, yes and yes I do prefer to be a bit conservative and yes, I do remember

[E_L]

but as it now looks, we may only get SC benefit in H2 and after the initial 1st line boost, it may flatten out slightly due to that S curve effect -or however they called that

[StockBull]

men forventer pe omkring de 40 for 2020 med mindre der kommer en partneraftale som sparker røv skal PE opad igen

[Mcjean]

okie ty

[Mcjean]

The S curve suck's you know that;-) The curve dosent fit Genmab, we talk about a drug like insulin......most will have to take it the rest of there life. U(slang) more u treat u more on the drug. I think the non linear S-curve is too soon to develop because we will see a lot maintenance and we need to fill that cup up first maybe?

[Mcjean]

Perhaps in 2025 you will see the effect of the s-curve when the sale has reached 15bn$;-)

[E_L]

i think we may be talking about different curves lol, i was more thinking about the effect from 1st line inflows now, where they start on weekly dosing, then later to bi-weekly and then once every four weeks