Debatforum

Daytrader.dk udfordrer nu sine brugere til en duel om, hvem der er bedst til at skabe profit i dagens markeder: Mennesket eller maskinen. Over et halvt år vil vi dyste om, hvem der klarer sig bedst som trader, og vi udlover hver måned en iPad Air 2, hvis der er en trader som på månedsbasis får et højere procentmæssigt afkast end vores robotter - og samtidig klarer sig bedre end de andre tradere i udfordringen. Lykkes det for nogen af de konkurrerende tradere at få et højere afkast end robotterne over et halvt år, så vinder vedkommende en tur til New York, inklusive en rundtur på Wall Street. Vi har selv indsat 200.000 kr. af vores egne penge, som robotterne kan handle med. Hvis du vil dyste mod robotterne, kan du dog selv vælge det beløb, du vil investere. Det er nemlig det procentmæssige afkast, og ikke afkastet i kroner og øre, som tæller i konkurrencen. Konkurrencen starter d. 15. september og afsluttes 15. marts 2017, med mulighed for at vinde præmier en gang om måneden. Du kan dog melde dig til med det samme og dermed gå igang med det gratis undervisningsforløb, der klæder dig på til konkurrencen. I forbindelse med vores investeringer i robotter kigger vi naturligvis på, hvordan de har klaret sig historisk set. Ikke kun i backtest, men også i et live-marked. Robotten, som handles på serveren Sector 1 har handlet live i markedet siden marts 2014, og har en glimrende historik, da den i de sidste 30 måneder har haft 28 måneder med et positivt afkast, og 2 måneder med et negativt afkast. Dette afkast er dokumenteret via en tredjepart, Myfxbook.com: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/BP33/bpge-pamm-account/879466 og http://www.myfxbook.com/members/BP33/sector-1-moderate/1576945 Havde man investeret i robotten i marts 2014, ville man have haft et afkast på 871,71 pct. med renters rente - altså forudsat, at man havde geninvesteret sin gevinst. De fleste foretrækker dog nok at hæve noget af gevinsten af og til! Der er naturligvis ingen garanti for, hvordan robotterne vil klare sig i fremtiden. Derfor har vi lave konkurrencen, hvor man kan dyste mod maskinen. Læs mere her: http://www.daytrader.dk/kan-du-sla-vores-borsrobot1/ http://www.daytrader.dk/udfordringen/valutarobot.php [image: 75153_valutarobotter.jpg]

Hej, Jeg er ny investor her paa Proinvestor, og har ogsaa meldt mig til Genmab gruppen da jeg har en del Genmab aktier. Kan dog ikke se hvordan / hvor man debatere i genmab gruppen. Har checket debat, chat og grupper samt debat (gammel struktur ). Ser ud til jeg "kun" kan skrive i aktiesnakken. Hvordan faar man adgang til genmab debat ? mvh StockBull

Det tyske eneriselskab RWE har længe performet dårligt kursmæssigt (og resultatmæssigt), men ser nu ud til at vende. Er der nogen der kender noget til dette? Teknisk set ser den vel god ud?

Analysen er lavet af Aktieinfo: http://www.aktieinfo.net/filer/columbush12016.pdf

Min nye analyse er nu på analysesiden: http://www.proinvestor.com/analyser

Så har vi endnu afholdt en spændende Q&A med Zealand Pharma på Proinvestor. Se vedhæftede transscript. 75134_qa_zealandphama_02092016.pdf

Læger som har arbejdet med Daratumumab svømmer over af begejstring i denne video. Følg debatten i Genmabchatten. http://www.onclive.com/peer-exchange/MM-therapeutic-approaches/daratumumab-revolutionizing-how-myeloma-is-treated

Hej Man kan idag læse, at der er udenlandske bejlere til, at købe Lyngby Boldklub. http://www.lyngby-boldklub.dk/lyngby-boldklub-i-forhandlinger-med-nye-potentiell Hvis en investor går ind og køber aktiemajoriteten i et selskab, er de så tvunget til at give bud på alle aktier ? Jeg mener engang at have læst at hvis et selskab køber mere end 30% op i selskab, skal de give bud på resten. Men gælder dette også unoterede aktier ? Ved i hvordan det er forløbet med de andre danske klubber der fornylig er blevet købt?(FCM, Vejle, FC Nordsjælland)

Analysen er lavet af FinanceLab: http://www.financelab.dk/2016/07/20/prime-office-as/

Vi har endnu engang afholdt Q&A med Genmabs CEO. Læs det spændende transscript, som er vedhæftet. 75062_QogA_Genmab_10_Aug_2016.pdf

Er der nogen der har en mening om Leroy Seafood , norge .........

Skal jeg vælge et frimærke eller et bogmærke? Elsker når jeg hører Helge i diverse medier bruge udtrykket frimærker og jeg syntes det kan være en brugbar ting at købe frimærker for at følge firmaer da de så hele tiden pipper frem på ens depot som Helge så smukt siger. For og imod frimærker. Når man er relativ ny som mig og har meget at lære om aktiehandel kan frimærker også være lidt farligt for skal man supplere op når begynder at stige ? Det er fristende men også en farlig vej hvis man ikke har styr på sin fundamentale eller tekniske analyse. Omvendt er det jo skønt at når ens frimærker falder mange procent så kan man sige pyt skidt for det rykker ikke det store i ens depot. Afhængig af kurtagepris og vekselomkostninger f.eks. på Nordnet har man som lille investor som mig ikke diverse valuta kontoer, det kan det hurtigt blive en dyr omgang at købe frimærker specielt uden for DK, trykker på knappen Køb til kurs 8 og næste dag står den som GAK 9. Her føler jeg mig lidt taget bag i og den slags er jeg simpelthen for nærig til, vil ikke have min aktier skal stige over 20 % for at bare gå i nul ( jeg er muligvis lidt psykologisk på afveje her ) Nu kan man ikke sætte en pris på et frimærke for mig og min økonomi er et frimærke 1000 - 1500 kr. Derfor ønsker jeg at introducere den nye trend nemlig bogmærker gearing af frimærker X4 så for mit vedkommende er det ca. 4000 - 5000 kr. Jeg føler at jeg får meget mere for pengene ens vekselkurs / handelsomkostninger bliver mere priset ind og man får mere for pengene. Igen rent psykologisk bryder jeg mig ikke om at udse en aktie og købe et frimærke for at se den stige næste dag med 10 % og jeg så stadig er i hullet. Jeg skal på ingen måder sige frimærker er dårlige men man skal have en strategi klar til hvad man ønsker at opnå med sine frimærker. For mit vedkommende er jeg mere tryg ved at vælge færre aktier og købe bogmærker i dem, dette er måske udtryk for min "manglende" dømmekraft hvor med for mange frimærker bliver fristet af at supplere op når stiger uden måske at have helt styr eller fejlbedømme hvorfor de stiger. Ulempen ved bogmærker er de fylder mere end frimærker og derfor naturligt giver større udsving i ens depot. Netop det man undgår ved at købe et frimærke og derfor vi elsker frimærker. Håber der i fremtiden er plads til begge dele frimærker og bogmærker  Take Care Simon

Baggrund: Prisen på kontrakt-lithium har været jævnt stigende i mindst 10 år, men i Kina steg spotprisen pludseligt sidste år. http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/04/14/lithium-price-on-the-rise/ Sidst i Juli åbnede Tesla sin Gigafactory i Nevada. Produktionen er så småt igang (først husbatterier), men skal blive meget stor om nogle år for at forsyne Model 3. Normalt laves batterier i Asien. http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-races-to-finish-gigafactory-in-time-for-model-3-rollout-1469404142 Det kræver store mængder råstoffer som bl.a grundstoffet lithium, men det findes mest i Sydamerikas saltørkner i økonomiske mængder. Det er også i havet og i din baghave, men det er for lav koncentration til at udvinde. http://www.economist.com/news/business/21688386-amid-surge-demand-rechargeable-batteries-companies-are-scrambling-supplies Tesla har lavet aftaler med flere forskellige for at sikre sig en bred forsyningsbase og rimelig pris. http://www.nanalyze.com/2015/08/the-likely-provider-of-lithium-for-teslas-gigafactory/ http://www.bacanoraminerals.com/news/TSX-V/pdf/tsxv_news20150827.pdf I Nevadas ørken er Albemarle eneste producent, og har en lille og nødlidende lithiumproduktion ved at pumpe saltvand op fra undergrunden og lade solen fordampe vand fra store saltvandssøer, samme måde som man har lavet salt siden oldtiden ved Middelhavet. En koncentration på 200 til 700 ppm er økonomisk for fordampningsmetoden http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Lithium-Will-See-Another-Price-Spike-This-Fall.html Miljøkrav gør at sol-metoden næppe kan udvides, da man ikke ønsker så store områder forurenet af de mange forskellige stoffer i vandet. Lige ved siden af Albemarle har flere selskaber rettigheder og forsøger at etablere produktion med andre metoder. Markedet for lithium ventes at stige, med en knaphed (shortage) på 46.000 tons (16% af efterspørgsel) i 2021 ifølge Macquarie. PE.V PE.V Pure Energy Minerals har lavet en aftale med Tesla - de skal levere hvis prisen er passende, ligesom andre selskaber. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/elon-musk-is-squaring-off-against-china-for-the-future-of-tesla http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/25/there-is-a-race-for-lithium-going-on-in-nevada.html Søg deres regnskaber på http://sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm PE har ikke produktion, men har lavet boreprøver og målinger på sit saltvand. Det er gået både godt og skidt - nogle tal var høje, andre var lave. Den sidste måling skuffede markedet, som solgte ud til kursfald 10.maj 2016. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pure-energy-minerals-provides-mini-123200557.html http://www.fifighter.com/lithium/lithium-updates/2016/05/pure-energy-minerals-avoid-this-stock-for-now-may-10-2016/ Det skyldes at deres største beholdning (dyb syd) målte lavere lithiumkoncentration (37ppm) end håbet, men LiSX-processen kan klare sig med tal ned til 20 hvor soldampning kræver væsentligt højere tal. http://www.pureenergyminerals.com/technology-overview/ De håber at finde bedre forhold dybere nede, og de målinger er lige på trapperne. Såfremt de er gode, er den bekræftede beholdning væsentligt større end hidtil, og aktiekursen kan stige så de kan købe produktionsudstyr. Det vand og salt de skiller ud returneres til undergrunden istedet for at fordampe, hvilket hjælper de omkringliggende ferskvandslag. http://www.wateronline.com/doc/pure-energy-minerals-signs-mutual-cooperation-clean-water-recovery-0001 http://epsteinresearch.com/2016/02/11/nevadas-pure-energy-minerals-next-u-s-lithium-producer/ http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/pure-energy-minerals-hmglf-access-to-2-cutting-edge-technologies-a-force-to-be-reckoned-with-398848/ Laboratorieforsøg har været gode http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pure-energy-minerals-provides-mini-123200557.html Finansielt har selskabet en markedværdi på $80mio, og fik $6m i ekstra aktiesalg til kurs $0.55 20juli2016 https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/07/20/857552/0/en/Pure-Energy-Closes-Oversubscribed-6-16M-Private-Placement.html De bruger ½mio $ i kvartalet, og skal bruge mere på boringer. En produktion koster tid og mange penge, og det kræver en meget højere aktiekurs så de kan udbyde flere aktier. Der vil således ske yderligere udvanding af aktiebeholdningen, men forhåbentlig til højere kurs. Jeg har ventet på at PE.V ville falde til 50c igen, men den har holdt sig over 70c. I aften kl 21 dansk tid afslører Tesla et eller andet produkt, og hvis det er batteri-relateret, kan interessen stige for PE.V så aktiekursen ikke falder foreløbig. Jeg valgte derfor at købe lidt ind i PE.V (via NordNet), bevidst om at det er høj risiko: hvis PE.V ikke kan levere billigt nok, er de ude. Canadisk dollar er billig for tiden til 5,10 DKK. Se PEs præsentation, april 2016 http://www.pureenergyminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Pure-Investor-Presentation-April-LOW-RES-19-2015.pdf Alternativ1: Bolivia har store reserver, men ingen produktion - endnu. Alternativ2: Oroplata http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Lithium-Could-Be-The-Biggest-Winner-Of-Musks-Master-Plan.html Alternativ3: Bacanora har vist produktion. Tal: Teslas mål er 35 GWh kapacitet i 2018, ligeså meget som hele verden producerede i 2014. Fuldt udbygget er målet 150 GWh. New York bruger 52 GWh strøm på et år. En celle har 0,3 gram lithium per Ampere-time. https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0747/4255/files/LithiumSizeGuidelines.pdf Et 60kWh batteri har 60.000 Wh / 3,7volt = 16.216 Ah (effekt=strøm gange spænding). Det blir 4,8 kg lithium i hvert batteri. Foreløbig håber Tesla at lave 100.000 Model S og X per år, det er mindst ½ mio kg (500 tons) lithium. Lithium-råvare (hydroxid) koster $9.000/ton, hvoraf lithium udgør 30%. Teslas udgift er således mindst 500t * $9k/t /0.3 = $15mio/år for lithium. Ved fuld produktion på 500.000 biler i 2020 skal Tesla bruge 2,4 mio kg lithium, altså 2.400 tons. Det er godt $70mio per år. Dertil kommer deres PowerWall husbatterier. Lithium-karbonat koster "kun" $8.000/ton, men her udgør lithium kun 20% af råvaren. Dertil kommer at batterifabrikken bruger lithium-elektrolyt (LiPF6 - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate), ikke råvare eller ren lithium. Mængder og beløb skal altså gennem en mellem-proces først. atomvægt Li 7. O 15. C 12. H 1 molekylvægt Li2CO3 14+12+45= 71 Li-del=14/71= 0,197 LiOH 7+15+1= 23 Li-del=7/23= 0,304 Tesla forsøgte at købe Simbol for $325m i 2014, men handlen mislykkedes. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2843375-Tesla-Term-Sheet.html http://web.archive.org/web/20160811213719/https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2843375-Tesla-Term-Sheet.html (crosspostet fra EI)

Her er anden og sidste del af min Wilhelm Wilhelmsen Holding analyse: https://hammerinvesting.wordpress.com/2016/07/10/video-post-wilhelm-wilhelmsen-holding-analysis-part-2/ del: https://hammerinvesting.wordpress.com/2016/05/20/video-post-wilhelm-wilhelmsen-holding-valuation-peer-analysis-part-1/

Triggerlista 2016 Svårt att säga exakt när saker o ting kommer men detta bör de komma pm om under H2 16. Studiestart BI-1206 Studiestart THR-317 Nytt tillverkningsavtal Avtal för T-Reg och/eller TAM Beviljande patent BI-1206,BI-505, Tb-403, N-coder, First, T-Teg, TAM? Milstolpsersättningar runt N-coder Nya kliniska studier med BI-505(lär köras med partner i så fall), Nya avtal runt N-coder(ett nytt skrevs under 2015) Information runt det prekliniska AML projektet Preklinisk info runt BI-1206 för kombination med CD-38 antikroppar Mer info gällande Car-t samarbetet som startade q1 2015? Besked hur dom gör med rättigheterna runt ögonsjukdomar THR317(TB-403) Kliniska framsteg för de utlicensierade(N-coder) Avtal runt de kliniska projekten? Något kring OX40 projektet? Cd val under H2 Nya forskningssamarbeten? Mer info gällande Car-t samarbetet som startade q1 2015? Publicering av data kring T-reg projektet? Publicering av data kring TAM projektet? Första datan för BI-505? Första datan för Tb-403? Nyheter som kan ge pengar i H2 Avtal runt T-Reg Avtal runt TAM Försäljning av THR-317 Prodavtal Milstones från N-coder Det är som Oredsson säger i sina presentationer "vi transformerar Bioinvent" Man har skapat både en bred och högintressant pipeline, där de finns brett intresse De har ökat deras kommersiella fokus(upp till bevis här gällande avtal för T-reg o TAM) De står starka med stark kassa, ny storägare, förbättrat styrelse och bredare ledning. (Källa :http://play.redeye.se/video/bioinvent-smabolagsdagen-2016)

Jeg har i et stykke tid været investeret i lng-sektoren gennem amerikanske cheniere, som er begyndt at eksportere lng ud af USA (i øvrigt som de eneste - indtil videre). Derudover har jeg lidt i John frederiksens rederi Flex LNG, som ganske vist ikke har nogen færdigbyggede skibe endnu. Men jeg er nysgerrig efter andre investeringer i skektoren, som af nogle spåes en solid fremtid - også inden for skibsbrændstof. Forleden så jeg at et mindre dansk rederi er begyndt at sejle på lng og i nordjylland er man nu i stand til at bunkre lng: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/video-dansk-skib-baner-vej-groennere-fremtid . Med de strammere EU-regler for skibsbrændstof i østersøen og nordsøen bør der være muligheder for investering - men hvor?

Dear Genmab investors I would firstly like to emancipate something that I read on the chat a couple of days ago. Rumours about Dutch investors unloading shares were discussed. Some are fearing that it is the members of the Blogbuster network who are the culprits. Such a situation would certainly put pressure on the stock given that the core of the network jointly holds a rather significant ownership stake. The Blogbuster network has grown lately and I therefore can't speak for the entirety of the network. I can although guarantee that the titans of the network (so those with significant holdings and influence), doesn't appear to be dumping their shares right now. The author of Blogbuster has personally reassured me that the network remains bullish as always and continues to believe in the unfolding of a blue-sky scenario. However, if you want to know more, then kindly seek other sources, as I honestly dislike divulging private information publically. With those reassuring words offering some investors peace of mind, I hurry up to deliver my own news. I must say that my stance on Genmab has changed after July generously gave me some time to reflect upon recent events. It is on this basis that I have arrived at a conclusion which drastically changes my anticipations for the coming 6 to 12 months. My new stance has already been discussed with a few from the PI-community. But, I did no find the time to publish anything yet and I'm now hence forced to deliver the news after a week of shareholder molesting, sorry! I RECOMMEND "HOLD" OR "CAUTIOUS BUY" - TAKEOVER OFF THE TABLE I no longer view a takeover as the most likely scenario for Genmab. I honestly don't feel like trying to offer counter arguments against all of the points that I have presented in favour of a takeover, so forgive me for not going into details. The matter of the fact is that no one really knows what is going on in the board rooms. We are all forced to resort to guesswork. This means that there is no definitive truth and our best choice is to estimate probabilities for various scenarios and/or outcomes. It also means that the idea of a takeover still can't be completely rejected - it is just not my base case anymore! I'm confident that many ideas presented along the way were right. The problem is that things have a tendency to change as time passes by and even more so as business is conducted. We can thus never know if our speculations -which might have been correct three months ago- suddenly became invalid because it no longer fitted the situation that arose one month ago. Considering this, I will now spend my energy on looking ahead in an attempt to present the ramifications of my new stance (and instead of looking back). Valuing Genmab without an associated strategic takeover premium obviously yields a different result. The short-term expectations that I will present in the following are therefore a little blurry and not as upbeat as you are properly hoping for. I'm actually a bit skeptical with regards to the short-term outlook. Please understand that I remain a long-term bull and that I haven't reduced my stake by a single stock. I have instead increased my holdings and plan to "buy on dips" over the next months. I have been a dedicated shareholder for many years and still expect to remain equally devoted for many more years. My "buy-and-hold" strategy means that the current weakness doesn't scare me. It is as a buying-opportunity that you should grab - at least if your investment horizon is 12 months or more. AN OUTDATED DCF ANALYSIS BASED ON A STRATEGIC TAKEOVER PREMIUM I previously operated with a simple key scenario that guided my investment thesis: Takeover in the range of 1800-2200 DKK This was based on my DCF analysis that yielded a PV of almost exactly 2000 DKK. The interval limits are derived extremes that were generated by manipulating my input assumptions significantly. It is very important to underline that the main components of my DCF model included a takeover premium. This means that the analysis unfortunately can't justify a PV of 2000 DKK based purely on intrinsic value! I'm sure that 2000 DKK could become a realistic target, but that would have to be within 12-18 months. It certainly requires further de-risking fuelled by a favorable news flow and a continued aggressive launch of Darzalex. RELAX - IT IS NOT ALL GLOOM AND DOOM - YOU WILL BE RICH (JUST A BIT LATER THAN FIRST ANTICIPATED) What is my intrinsic value of Genmab today? It is roughly aligned with the consensus of analysts as we shall see later. So, I still believe that Genmab should deliver a handsome return over the next 12 months. But, this is nevertheless much less than the return which a takeover could have delivered in as little as 3-6 months. I still think that Genmab will yield an amazing return of 300-500% over the next 48-60 months now that I believe the company will remain independent. So, I'm obviously still mega bullish on a longer time scale. It is thus only the short-term horizon over the next months that I fear might offer us a bumpy ride. UNFAVOURABLE SHORT-TERM MACRO TRENDS So why might Genmab be in for a bumpy ride on the short term? Well, we could start by looking at the general sector rotation that seemed to be vigorously ongoing this week. Smart money is moving away from biotech in an attempt to avoid the "Hillary effect" as Trump becomes a more and more unlikely winner. The SP500 is edging towards ATH and we should normally see capital flow towards the more risk prone assets. Despite this, we still haven't really witnessed the NBI taking off. I'm personally afraid that the continued American biotech gloom is a bit more than just a fluke. I'm not saying that the market will collapse from here but I also don't see the NBI recovering up to the old top. SHORT-TERM TRADERS RUNNING FOR THE EXIT Genmab remains a steam-train that will deliver relentless value in the future. However, the immediate short-term prospects of making "big bucks" have, for the time being, evaporated along with the anticipated takeover. It will require a bit of luck and maybe even the arrival of unexpected good news if we are to break the magical threshold of 2.000 DKK during 2017. Both the case-specific details and the large macro trends indicates that the short-term traders will exit in droves. This will create occasional spurts of selling that loosens other shaky hands and keeps us from moving above 1200 without substantial news to ignite the rise. Short-term investors will further exit as they start to realize how the ramped up pipeline only delivers tangible value long from now but immediately burns part of our precious cool cash from Darzalex royalties. TISO AND DARA (OUTSIDE OF MM) - HUGE UPSIDE POTENTIAL - BUT NOT NOW! I remain highly upbeat about the prospects for tisotumab and I also hope that we will see strong daratumumab efficacy outside the scope of MM. However, the stock market is not going to attribute much value to these things for the next foreseeable future. Even overwhelmingly good tisotumab data will still not give us much more than 50 to 100 points in short term gains. There are dauntingly bullish long-term perspectives associated with this wonder drug but it will not be rewarded fully in the next 12-18 months. THE XENCOR SLAP - CRITICAL QUESTIONS ABOUT OUR "WOLRD-CLASS" TECH-PLATFORMS I believe that deal-hungry investors over the next months will begin to ask critical questions concerning the oncology potential of Genmab's technology platforms. Genmab has repeatedly advertised that they have world-class technology platforms. Such strong self-confidence is unfortunately no longer warranted by the harsh terms of reality. We are namely facing a reality were we have seen the Xencor/Novartis deal slapping Genmab in the Face. It is not a good sign that Novartis opts for a competitor after having had a research collaboration with Genmab that goes further back than JnJ. GILEAD PUTTING A NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF THE "WORLD-CLASS" TECH-PLATFORM STATUS It is not secret that we have an apparent lack of significant commercial technology deals at Genmab. This even more so after our long-term and much heralded "secret partner" has come forward with a very meager HIV Duobody deal. The deal is surprisingly one more that falls outside the scope of Genmab's self-proclaimed area of competitive advantage (oncology). With terms based on USD 5M upfront and single digit royalties (likely 5%) this isn't exactly the news we had hoped for. The large milestone package is back-end loaded that it simply represents one more bird in the bush. Whatever happened to the much trumpeted price hike that would ensue from prolonged research sniffing. What about Gilead's ambitions in oncology and many other questions that currently begs an answer before we can safely trust again that we have the promised world-class technology platforms. LEAPING TOWARDS AN UPDATED VALUATION - A CETERIS PARIBUS TEST Okay, so there is now no doubt that I see a bit of clouds on the immediate horizon. However, there should likewise be no doubt that the sun is going to shine again soon. We just need to make sense of the facts and this has compelled me to do a very alternative "on-the-fly" and "back-of-the-envelope" valuation. With our cheeks still being red from the Xencor slap, I ask you to join me in ceteris paribus exercise. Imagine (everything else equal) that there will be no news flowing to the market from Genmab until the end of the year. This would most likely send the share down to somehere in the 900-1100 range. Making the midpoint (1000) our base we now consider the ceteris paribus effect of each piece of news that we expect to receive and we then accumulate the value to see where we will arrive: DATE EVENT VALUE MIDPOINT SHARE PRICE 31/12/2016 Everything unchanged - no further value driving events! 900-1100 1000 1000 2H - 16 Excellent Tisotumab data 50-100 75 1075 Q4 - 16 Early indications af efficacy in NHL (ASH) 50-100 75 1150 Q4 - 16 50M DKK earnings upgrade (thanks to quicker uptake) 20-40 30 1180 Q4 - 16 250 M DKK earnings upgrade (quick approval 2nd line) 50-100 75 1255 Q4 - 16 Sub-q phase I readout 50-100 75 1330 Q4 - 16 IND CD3xCD20 Duobody 10-20 15 1345 Q2 - 17 ALCYONE front line interim read out 100-200 150 1495 Hence very close to the 12 months consensus! The above approach is not very rational and it isn't conventional either. But, it is intuitive as hell and very easy to do "on-the-fly". I did not plan for hitting close to the analyst consensus. But, so I did and this underscores the validity of my gut feelings, namely that the current analysts consensus is roughly right for the moment. REFLECTING ON THE NUMBERS - YOU ARE ADDICTED TO EXTREME RETURN Now, from today's value of 1132 and up to 1495 we still have 32% return which is not that bad in 8-12 months. However, we still need and additional 30% before we will manage to hit 2000 DKK at some point during the last half of 2017. Closing 2017 at 2000 implies that we need a 76% return from today (so within the next 16 months). Considering that we have just collapsed and assuming that we will immediately correct a bit upwards from this anomalies level means that we need what equates to roughly 50% ROI per year over the 18 months to wind up at 2000 DKK before the end of 2017. I had personally hoped Genmab would be blasted almost immediately beyond 2000 DKK by a takeover. Giving up on this idea means that we now need proper catalysts and time to get us there. It is mathematically 100 times more difficult to create return when your market cap is 70 billion instead of 700 million! The market luckily doesn't always realize this and Genmab might move fast in the wake of unexpected positive news not included above. Genmab got us all hooked on high returns and we are craving it like drug addicts. That is why this analysis suddenly seems so unsexy when comparing to my previous ones. Seriously, pull yourself together - you can't make 100% every year. All stocks sooner or later will fall prey to the inevitable force of mean reversion. Genmab is still far from there as it looks like it will continue to deliver above average returns.

Efter et par røde uger, hos både Genmab og Novo Nordisk, viste begge aktier tegn på vending i fredags. Allerede fra morgenen af, så det interessant ud, da aktierne holdt sig over deres respektive købsniveauer. Efter et lille tilbagefald over middag, hvor der var mulighed for at købe til en fornuftig pris, tog aktierne revanche hen mod luk. Det endte med at begge aktier gik i køb i dag I kan finde den daglige analyse af: Novo Nordisk her: https://www.tradedesk.dk/engine/report.php?stockid=84&stockname=NOVOb.CO&utm_source=proinvestor&utm_medium=forum&utm_campaign=ekstern_marketing Hvis I, i stedet, er mere til: Genmab kan I finde den her: https://www.tradedesk.dk/engine/report.php?stockid=48&stockname=GEN.CO&utm_source=proinvestor&utm_medium=forum&utm_campaign=ekstern_marketing Lad os håbe på en god stigning [image: 75102_genmab.jpg]

Interessant fakta : der er gået 1849 dage uden en 20% korrektion ifølge Ned Davis Research. Udpumpning af penge spiller givet meget ind. http://www.demetra.dk/finansblog/1849-dage-uden-en-20-korrektion/ Dshort.com leverer også interessante grafer : http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Snapshot

Martin Pring explains very well which stage we are in looking at the Business cycle. Bonds have been bullish for many years and stocks have been bullish for several years. Now commodities have turned bullish. http://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/?id=17924 Exploration and Production Index. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSOS&p=D&st=2011-04-01&en=today&id=p87044690952&a=397019814&r=1470674424611&cmd=print mvh. nfø https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786