Genmab — April 2021

DevOp

Biontech ser ud til at have en mulig seriøs mRNA-baseret konkurrent til Kesimpta ift MS. Nyhed tilbage fra Januar https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-publishes-data-novel-mrna-vaccine-approach-treat/

E_L

the Kesimpta statements were a bit cryptic, a bit difficult to tread, but this part is clear:

E_L

Marie-France Tschudin -- President of Novartis Pharmaceuticals

Yeah. So, currently, we have about 2,400 patients treated on Kesimpta. And as you pointed out, we have a 12-month bridging program. When we -- when we discussed this at the end of Q4, we -- we were actually looking at 30% paid with 70% free.

That -- that is radically changed. So, it looks like we flipped those numbers and we're currently at 70% paid product. We expect that to get up to 80% for the --

E_L

-- the rest of the year and that's why we've changed our percentage sales for the second half of the year from 75% to 65%.

JørgenVarnæs

Shouldn’t that be from 65% to 75%?

JørgenVarnæs

I suppose the “percentage sales” is the ratio of “paid” sales versus “free” sales

E_L

i think it refers to the split in revenue between H1 and H2; as they thought H1 to mainly free, they thought H2 would have a higher % of total sales; now that H1 will also start to kick in with paid, H1 % of total will go up?

E_L

hmmm, i think i wrote this almost as cryptic as novartis lol

JørgenVarnæs

...ok - for some odd reason, patients prefer to pay for the drug rather than to get it for free

E_L

lol, don't think it works like that they must have been able to divert more patients to programs that don't benefit from the free sales

E_L

don't forget there is a whole eco system around selling drugs that also does not benefit if sales are free...

E_L

so i imagine there will be providers or even MD's that will not get paid their % of the revenue if it is for free, so they have an incentive help NVS...

JørgenVarnæs

It only makes sense to me if Novartis have confused those numbers - and percentage sales goes from 65% to 75%.

JørgenVarnæs

Do you know when the “bridging program” ends? Sounds like Q3

E_L

it depends on when they stop offering it i guess; it was approved Q3 last year, a 12 month program, so Q3 this year first will fall of. But those that got into the program in Q1 may have until Q1 next year?

JørgenVarnæs

It certainly sounds like there is a long tail of “free sales” in those numbers

E_L

on the %, numbers just for easy illustration- imagine they first thought H1 25M sales and H2 75M ; H2 would be 75% of sales.

E_L

Now they think H1 50M sales and H2 90M ; H2 would be
64% of sales.

E_L

Sanofi: First-quarter Sarclisa sales were €34 million driven by
additional country launches. First-quarter sales in the U.S. and in Europe were €12 million and €13 million, respectively.
In Rest of the World sales (€9 million) were driven by a strong performance in Japan.

JørgenVarnæs

So, basically what they are saying is H1 paid sales have surprised us, but we leave guidance for H2 paid sales unchanged - that is why this “percentage sales” will decrease...?