Genmab — April 2021
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...ok - for some odd reason, patients prefer to pay for the drug rather than to get it for free
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It only makes sense to me if Novartis have confused those numbers - and percentage sales goes from 65% to 75%.
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Do you know when the “bridging program” ends? Sounds like Q3
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It certainly sounds like there is a long tail of “free sales” in those numbers
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Sanofi: First-quarter Sarclisa
sales were €34 million driven by
additional country launches. First-quarter sales in the U.S. and in Europe were €12 million and €13 million, respectively.
In Rest of the World sales (€9 million) were driven by a strong performance in Japan. -
So, basically what they are saying is H1 paid sales have surprised us, but we leave guidance for H2 paid sales unchanged - that is why this “percentage sales” will decrease...?
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Makes sense in a very arse-backwards-we-insist-on-not-making-sense sort of way...
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in real numbers, lets say Q2 will grow to for example 75M. Then H1 ends up at 125M. To make their % correct we would need 230M in H2 to get to 65%. So that would total full year sales at 355M. So i think we can use something like that for now as 2021 estimate
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Sorry. Had to step out to learn the missus to handle the motorbike. Your calcs defininately sound right. Thanks for that!
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Learn/teach.
they must have been able to divert more patients to programs that don't benefit from the free sales
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