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Genmab — Februar 2021

Planlagt Fastgjort Låst Flyttet Genmab
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  • G Offline
    G Offline
    gentogen
    wrote on sidst redigeret af
    #1450

    Til alm info var min primitive udregning forleden baseret på midtpunktet af 2021 dara salgsestimat = 32.4M (5.4US) og ved at estimere 55% FASPRO fik jeg 17.8M DK, hvoraf 5% så er 890MIO hvoraf Genmabs andel på450mio er 50%. Jeg ved ikke, om man kan regne sådan, men det var et slag på tasken

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    • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
      JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
      JørgenVarnæs
      wrote on sidst redigeret af
      #1451

      With that i get a yearly USD royalty of usd 675,5m

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      • E Offline
        E Offline
        E_L
        wrote on sidst redigeret af
        #1452

        for 2020 $4.190?

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        • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
          JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
          JørgenVarnæs
          wrote on sidst redigeret af
          #1453

          But i’m a little uncertain about these nos because the Q4 royalty in my calcs is 19,4% (based on usddkk 6,24 and quarterly royalty of dkk 1521m

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          • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
            JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
            JørgenVarnæs
            wrote on sidst redigeret af
            #1454

            EL - yes

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            • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
              JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
              JørgenVarnæs
              wrote on sidst redigeret af
              #1455

              A yearly royalty rate of 16,12%

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              • E Offline
                E Offline
                E_L
                wrote on sidst redigeret af
                #1456

                are you calculating the USD back from the DKK amounts you had?

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                • E Offline
                  E Offline
                  E_L
                  wrote on sidst redigeret af
                  #1457

                  this may paste messy, but i'll try:

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                  • E Offline
                    E Offline
                    E_L
                    wrote on sidst redigeret af
                    #1458

                    $750.000.000 12% $90.000.000
                    $1.500.000.000 13% $97.500.000
                    $2.000.000.000 16% $80.000.000
                    $3.000.000.000 18% $180.000.000
                    $4.190.000.000 20% $238.000.000

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                    • E Offline
                      E Offline
                      E_L
                      wrote on sidst redigeret af
                      #1459

                      Royalties 2020: $685.500.000

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                      • E Offline
                        E Offline
                        E_L
                        wrote on sidst redigeret af
                        #1460

                        hey that is not so bad 😉 Total

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                        • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                          JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                          JørgenVarnæs
                          wrote on sidst redigeret af
                          #1461

                          With the Q2 once-in-a-lifetime-every-year adjustment we could be talking about the same nos

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                          • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                            JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                            JørgenVarnæs
                            wrote on sidst redigeret af
                            #1462

                            And with the USDDKK being much lower in H2 is seems right my nos are lower than yours

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                            • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                              JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                              JørgenVarnæs
                              wrote on sidst redigeret af
                              #1463

                              ...and look what’s happening in the market right now...

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                              • E Offline
                                E Offline
                                E_L
                                wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                #1464

                                yeah it took out the stops below 2066, first bottom attempt

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                                • E Offline
                                  E Offline
                                  E_L
                                  wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                  #1465

                                  breaking the short term down-trend line from friday. see if that holds now
                                  .

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                                  • JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                                    JørgenVarnæsJ Offline
                                    JørgenVarnæs
                                    wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                    #1466

                                    Also it seems royalties are calculated on a yearly basis but paid on a quarterly basis - then we must have some sort of regulation somewhere

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                                    • E Offline
                                      E Offline
                                      E_L
                                      wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                      #1467

                                      @gentogen, i used the actual Genmab guidance for a similar excercise, all at fx 6

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                                      • E Offline
                                        E Offline
                                        E_L
                                        wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                        #1468

                                        2021 guidance $5.200.000.000 = dkk5.325.000.000 compared to dkk 4.900.000.000 guided , gives a difference of dkk
                                        425.000.000

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                                        • E Offline
                                          E Offline
                                          E_L
                                          wrote on sidst redigeret af
                                          #1469

                                          and similar for the high guidance $5.600.000.000 5.805.000.000 dkk 5.300.000.000 diff
                                          505.000.000

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