Genmab — Januar 2021

E_L

TEPEZZA Short-Term Supply Disruption FAQ https://www.horizontherapeutics.com/media-center/horizon-resources/tepezza-short-term-supply-disruption-faq

Stroka

Medwatch: https://medwatch.dk/Medicinal___Biotek/article12693645.ece

Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør

E L. Unfortunately not the first quarter. That is the top sales estimate.

E_L

I was joking offcourse, but I think that is significantly too low. I think we can breach $400mio this year already.

E_L

Dara is fully established, it is not a new drug, most MD’s will already have had experience with it and a lot of them even with SC. You can see from the numerous twitter reactions how enthusiastic most MD’s are. It is the first and only therapy and It will go straight to first line.

E_L

Besides the 4000 new patients expected to get diagnosed this year, there are many currently waiting for new treatment. In addition, amyloidosis is significantly under-diagnosed; I expect that 4000 number to go up over the next few years when MD’s learn what to look for. JNJ already started an awareness campaign.

GeorgeBest

You convinced me E L. At least 400M $ this year

Bulder

Peaksale will be significantly greater than $200mio. This source estimates the total market as $6,7bn in 5 years, and with dara as dominant treatment it will easily reach about 1/5-1/4 of MM sales, which already was 4bn last year. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4661556/amyloidosis-treatment-market-size-share-and

troldmanden

So EL what is your total estimate for dara sales i 2021?

Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør

E L . I knew you were joking. I agree that peak sales can easily get much higher.

Bulder

Han mangler et nul: 2000 mio $

Bulder

om 5 år

Bulder

For at summe op: Novod regner med 4bn for tepro i thyroid. 3-3½bn for ofa i RMS. Hvis hertil lægges 2 bn for dara i amy, bliver det tilsammen lige så meget som dara i MM.

E_L

@troldmanden i have +- $5.5bn for this year

Skyggen

@ Bulder det giver 9-9,5 mia i andre indikationer end dara det kommer dara vel ikke i nærheden af i år eller hvordan vurdere du det

Bulder

nej i 2025. Og royalty for tepro (6%)og ofa (10%) er noget mindre end for dara. Dara vil år nærme sig 6 mia i MM og amy tilsammen.Tror jeg.

Bulder

Salg - ikke royalty - og $

Bulder

Er der forresten nogen, der ved om royalty-trappen for dara starter forfra ved 12% i den nye indikation?

GeorgeBest

Ved det ikke, men vil tro det er en fælles trappe med MM. Ellers havde vi hørt om det...

Solsen

Det tror jeg bestem ikke. Men muligt JNJ gør det