Genmab — April 2017
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Jeg er ikke helt sikker på at MM er priset helt ind. Når der kommer godkendelse i Japan og andre regioner vil salget i MM blive en del større. Jeg tror ikke helt analytikerne har regnet på det endnu. Udenfor MM er der store forhåbninger, og vi får jo nok nogen indikationer i år på mulighederne.
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Generelt har analytikerne
et topsalgs estimat på 8-10 milliarder dollar. Det indeholder efter min bedste overbevisning det samlede globale salg. -
Ok Helge. - Lidt uenig.
Men jeg tror kun at det dækker når MM bliver standard behandling i USA og EU. De kan vel ikke allerede lave beregninger før ansøgninger er tilsendt ( Japan som er sendt for nylig ) og Asien som helhed hvor der vist mangler mange lande fra. Inc Kina. Det er store områder at lave beregninger på. Det er så bare min ydmyge mening. 
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Visse analytikere har et topsalgsestimat på 8 mia $ i MM alene. Hvis vi antager at det holder, så er 2.+ linje ca 4 mia værd. Og det er hvad dagens kurs ca afspejler. 2. linje ww er med andre ord fuldt indregnet. Det kan da godt være at EMA-godkendelse vil give lidt stigning, men næppe meget. Det helt helt afgørende er gode Alcyone-data, som vil sparke døren ind til 1. linje og dermed til den anden halvdel af markedet.
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Dear Genmab believers, I often see comments about “Dara MM sales fully priced in”. If you have 5 minutes, read these comments and I will promise you you’ll have a great Easter Sunday!
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Based on multiple drivers I believe Dara in MM is not fully priced in. And this has everything to do with the analyst projections, these just don’t reflect the data.
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What drives this?: 1) Analysts don’t have the courage to reflect the real data in their models (with a price target of +50% or even +100% they would look like fools to their customers, nobody has the courage to do this) 2) The penetration assumptions in first and second line are still very low
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- Also the treatment duration per patient is very low. Analysts are accounting for 24 months Dara treatment, while we already saw in the Pollux data that the PFS is going +50 months, regarding first line we’ve already heard some doctors speaking of Dara maintenance in the range of 5 years till 10 years.
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SO, LET THIS ALL SINK IN FOR A MOMENT….
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Average analyst model: low penetration in first line (20% - 50%) and 24 months Dara treatment, what if this gets updated to 60% - 75% first line penetration and 7,5 years of Dara treatment??! Conclusion: The current MM peak sales estimation is far from what it will be in 10 – 15 years from now. I believe the MM only sales will go to 15 – 20 billion.
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So what does this say, and how can you find out? There’s only one way and that is by making the calculations yourself.
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I did some calculations, based on the 15 and 20 billion peak sales scenario’s. And I put in a few very soft assumptions: 1) Total shares outstanding in 2030: 65 million (currently 61 million) 2) Net profit margin Genmab in 2030: 75% (With such high royalty income the margin in reality will be significant higher) 3) Average royalty: 18% 4) Currency USD/DKK: 7.00 DKK per 1 USD
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Based on these assumptions and a stock price of 2500 DKK the P/E will be: 15 billion USD peak sales = +/- 19 billion DKK royalty, 75% net profit = 14.2 billion DKK net profit = 11 P/E 15 billion USD peak sales = +/- 25 billion DKK royalty, 75% net profit = 18.9 billion DKK net profit = 8 P/E J&J at the moment has a P/E of 18 and Roche of 22, off course P/E’s at the moment are quite high however
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