Genmab — Juli 2016
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Kan man ikke bare sætte forskellige risk%'er sammen som man lyster, det virker sådan og så er modellerne jo ikke meget værd, men glæder mig til at se resultatet og glæder mig til ROI kommer på banen og spiller ud med de mulige bagvedliggende motiver for en kurs der mest af alt minder om et forsøg på at tale kursen ned med henblik på snarlig "fødsel"
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HSBC interview - https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/20/wGrxrqd
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Hun siger at for at forsvare den nuværende kurs, så skal peaksale være 15 milliarder dollar.
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"Genmab currently trades on a 2016e PE of ~125x (versus 44x for the NBI), reflecting huge expectations for the commercial success of Darzalex (and the inappropriateness of this valuation metric). On our estimates, to achieve Genmab’s current share price (DKK1,237) we would need to assume peak sales of USD15.5bn in 2027e (we forecast a still impressive USD9.2bn and patent expirations from 2028) and 100% certainty of the approval and label expansion to include relapsed/refractory MM, frontline MM
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and in 3L therapy for NHL".
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Enig Solsen.
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Her er lidt back of the envelope beregning. Mere behøver man vist ikke. 60 mio aktier til kurs 613 giver mcap 36 mia.
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Peaksales på usd 10 mia giver GEN royalty på usd 1,5 mia ~ dkk 10 mia ( konservativt). HSBC target svarer til 3,5 års
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Topsalg... Det åd ipad'en.
(y)
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