Genmab — Juli 2016
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Hun siger at for at forsvare den nuværende kurs, så skal peaksale være 15 milliarder dollar.
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"Genmab currently trades on a 2016e PE of ~125x (versus 44x for the NBI), reflecting huge expectations for the commercial success of Darzalex (and the inappropriateness of this valuation metric). On our estimates, to achieve Genmab’s current share price (DKK1,237) we would need to assume peak sales of USD15.5bn in 2027e (we forecast a still impressive USD9.2bn and patent expirations from 2028) and 100% certainty of the approval and label expansion to include relapsed/refractory MM, frontline MM
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and in 3L therapy for NHL".
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Enig Solsen.
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Her er lidt back of the envelope beregning. Mere behøver man vist ikke. 60 mio aktier til kurs 613 giver mcap 36 mia.
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Peaksales på usd 10 mia giver GEN royalty på usd 1,5 mia ~ dkk 10 mia ( konservativt). HSBC target svarer til 3,5 års
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Topsalg... Det åd ipad'en.
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Godt nok uden tilbagediskontering, men i en verden med nulrente kan man nok tilgive mig
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Det er bare for at vise hvor bias'ed mod risiko hsbc analysen er. I en virkelig verden hænger den ikke sammen
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Hvidvin tager damens topsalg på usd 15 mia, så er royalty næsten usd 3 mia ~ dkk 20 mia, og så når vi dagens kurs på 3,5 år igen....
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Hvidvin= hvis vi, kan godt se at min ipad har akklimatiseret sig til sommerhuset...
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