Novo - reaktioner på CagriSema studiet.
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Ja, Novo har skudt sig selv i foden ved at give markedet alt for høje forventninger.
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Ja, jeg kan slet ikke forstå at det kan være en videnskablig undersøgelse, hvis deltagerne selv kan bestemme doseringen?
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For høje forventninger. Jeg synes nu det er markedet og analytikere før udmelding, som gør for meget ud af forskel mellem 23 og 27%.
Da jeg i går læste om 20% op ved 27%, 10% ved 25% og 20% ned ved lavere end 25%, så synes jeg det lød skørt.
Det skete så...men er stadig skørt.
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Novo har tilsyneladende designet studiet, så folk selv kan bestemme hvornår et vægttab er nok, herunder dosis. Ud fra dette, er valide tal kun fra 57 procent af deltagerene. Hvis dette tal var 90 procent af deltagerne eller flere, ville CagriSema formentlig være langt over 25 procent i vægttab - snarer omkring de 30 procent. Det er designet helt skævt. Deltagerne er sprunget fra i takt med et tilfredsstillende vægttab!!
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"We are encouraged by the weight loss profile of CagriSema. This was achieved even though only 57% of patients reached the highest CagriSema dose," said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president for development at Novo Nordisk, in a statement Friday".
Yahoo Finance on Instagram: "Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported its newest GLP-1 product, CagriSema, provides an average of 22.7% weight loss, but that wasn't enough to convince investors, sparking a sell-off of the stock. "We are encouraged by the weight loss profile of CagriSema. This was achieved even though only 57% of patients reached the highest CagriSema dose,” said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president for development at Novo Nordisk, in a statement Friday. The results came from a trial of nondiabetic adults with obesity. A second late-stage trial for diabetics is underway, with results expected in the first half of 2025. Novo traded down more than 20% Friday morning, its biggest loss since 2002. The CagriSema news boosted competitors, such as Eli Lilly (LLY), whose stock bumped up more than 6%. The results are significantly better than those of Novo's current GLP-1s, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss, which provide around 15% weight loss. But Novo's management had been bullish on CagriSema, setting the bar at 25%. "This is below the Street’s expectation of 25% and more comparable to the ~21% for Zepbound. It appears the protocol for the CagriSema trial included flexible dosing, and this led to only ~57% of patients reaching the highest dose of the product/contributed to the lower-than-expected avg weight loss," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients Friday. Read further at the link in our bio."
2,119 likes, 19 comments - yahoofinance on December 20, 2024: "Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported its newest GLP-1 product, CagriSema, provides an average of 22.7% weight loss, but that wasn't enough to convince investors, sparking a sell-off of the stock. "We are encouraged by the weight loss profile of CagriSema. This was achieved even though only 57% of patients reached the highest CagriSema dose,” said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president for development at Novo Nordisk, in a statement Friday. The results came from a trial of nondiabetic adults with obesity. A second late-stage trial for diabetics is underway, with results expected in the first half of 2025. Novo traded down more than 20% Friday morning, its biggest loss since 2002. The CagriSema news boosted competitors, such as Eli Lilly (LLY), whose stock bumped up more than 6%. The results are significantly better than those of Novo's current GLP-1s, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss, which provide around 15% weight loss. But Novo's management had been bullish on CagriSema, setting the bar at 25%. "This is below the Street’s expectation of 25% and more comparable to the ~21% for Zepbound. It appears the protocol for the CagriSema trial included flexible dosing, and this led to only ~57% of patients reaching the highest dose of the product/contributed to the lower-than-expected avg weight loss," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients Friday. Read further at the link in our bio.".
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Jeg er bestemt tilhænger af de tanker der kommer frem herinde. Men Kan det tænkes at Novo jo viste at bivirkningsprofilen er vigtig da vægtabet stort set er magen til, ville blive magen til Zepbound, og derfor gjorde doseringen frivillig så bivirkningerne ville blive mere moderate og discontinuation forhåbentlig mindre. Derfor er kun godt halvdelen nået op på max dosis og ikke fordi patienterne har nået en tilpas vægt.
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Der er enkelte dage på aktiemarkedet, som Helge Larsen aldrig glemmer. I går var en af dem. Novos aktiekurs tog et kæmpe dyk efter offentliggørelsen af ellers nydelige data på CagriSema. Men data levede ikke op til markedets forventninger. Helge Larsen tager et grundigt kig på, hvilke faktorer der har fået investorerne til at gå helt i panik, og hvordan fremtiden tegner for den danske fedmegigant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ORDnmy2mEE -
Måske Novo's design i virkeligheden er det mest troværdige, fordi at folk faktisk selv bestemte!
Det viser jo, hvordan folk vil agere når de selv bestemmer og dermed giver det et realistisk billede af hvad folk vil opleve.
Det er selvfølgelig uheldigt, hvis fokus er på hvis der er størst, højest og smukkest - på papiret
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