NOVO — December 2024
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"Hence, that only 57% of patients got to the highest dose of
Cagrisema was likely not due to tolerability issues (one can
then speculate why, but it may have been driven by patients
simply stopping when getting to a satisfactory weight loss).
"With this in mind, we are confident that Novo can also
deliver higher weight loss with Cagrisema in such a trial." Med tak til Stockwatch1
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Mere fra Stockwatch: SIMON BAKER, HEAD OF GLOBAL BIOPHARMA RESEARCH AT REDBURN
ATLANTIC IN LONDON:
"(The weight loss) is considerably lower than the 25% most
were expecting, based on the company's modelling commentary.
"(...) around 23% is probably commercially sufficient longer
term, but inadequate on the day, hence the very sharp drop in
the stock. -
Also of note is that only 57% reached the highest dose,
which will lead to speculation about tolerability despite the
benign language in the press release. The 27% drop (in the share
price) is completely out of proportion fundamentally, but
positioning around this event was huge and it will take a while
for this to stabilise." -
"Baseret på disse tal er forholdet mellem den daglige handelsvolumen på NYSE og Nasdaq Copenhagen cirka 5,32 millioner til 3,19 millioner, hvilket svarer til en ratio på omkring 1,67:1."
Korrigeret for ADR-værdi, og omregnet til daglige handelsværdi så ender vi vist med: at den daglige handelsværdi af Novo Nordisk-aktier på NYSE er cirka dobbelt så stor som på Nasdaq Copenhagen.
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Novo/Jyske Bank: Kursreaktion virker som overreaktion https://proinvestor.com/investornyt/1256447/novo-jyske-bank-kursreaktion-virker-som-overreaktion
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Mere fra Stockwatch: "
UBS ANALYST JO WALTON:
UBS forecasts 70%
probability of $13bn incremental peak sales, which we value at DKK 34.8/share, 7.3%
of total NPV. As we highlighted in our CagriSema preview a worst case result would
be limited differentiation vs Zepbound and could suggest -9% downside to NPV. -
We
typically see stocks react 2-3x NPV on clinical trial readouts, which has been reflected in
the market reaction today". -
Novo fik da virkelig ødelagt julen for mange danske investorer i dag. Jeg forstår ikke, hvorfor de bliver ved med at offentliggøre data, mens markedet er åbent, i stedet for at gøre det før markedet åbner eller efter det lukker, som alle andre. Det giver jo ikke investorer en chance for at kigge tallene igennem og træffe en ordentlig beslutning. I stedet går handelsrobotterne bare amok på et enkelt tal og trigger stop-loss og folk sælger eller køber i panik.
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Jeg må indrømme at jeg ikke helt forstår, hvad der helt konkret har ændret sig med et vægttab på knap 23% fremfor 25%. CagriSema bliver stadig det bedste på markedet. Er det fordi at midlet ikke kan sælges ligeså dyrt som det ellers ville kunne? Eller er det fordi Lilly har et kommende middel der er bedre, eller hvad er problemet
helt konkret? -
ovo Holdings har, så vidt jeg kan se, invisteret adskillige millarder i kapacitet til Novo Nordisk. Nu kunne man formode, at der ikke bliver behov for al den kapacitet. Bliver aktionærererne i Novo Nordisk så igen prygelknabe her?
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