NOVO — December 2024
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Den fleksible dosis i Redefine 1 var smart tænkt og et forsøg på at få et bedre bivirknings profil, Pts kunne selv hoppe ned i dosis. Det er sikker også lykkes når vi får data at se. Men det har jo nok også gjort at kun 57% at Pts var på den højeste dosis, og derved formentlig en årsag til at det samlede totale vægt tab kun er 23%. Havde været dejligt hvis Novo kommunikerede bivirkningerne også. Eller hvad, man tør jo ikke tænke hvad der kunne sket med kursen hvis også de er under forventning.
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Det er senioranalytiker Søren Løntoft Hansen fra Sydbank, der sætter ord på Novo Nordisks store nedtur efter de nye tal fra Cagrisema. Han peger på flere årsager til, at der måske stadig er håb forude, blandt andet at nogle investorer måske har en forkert opfattelse af fremtiden på fedmemarkedet.
Derudover synes han heller ikke, at dagens tal er så skuffende, som kurstabet kan indikere.https://www.euroinvestor.dk/nyheder/analytiker-har-et-anderledes-syn-paa-novo-kursfaldet
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Vedr. bivirkninger...som Helge postede 12.24: "In the trial, CagriSema, cagrilintide 2.4 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg appeared to have a safe and well-tolerated profile. The most common adverse events with CagriSema were gastrointestinal, and the vast majority were mild to moderate and diminished over time, consistent with the GLP-1 receptor agonist class".
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»Det er indiskutabelt vanvittigt.«
Det udtaler Nordnets investeringsøkonom, Per Hansen, om det brutale kursfald, som vi lige nu ser i Novo Nordisk-aktien. https://www.euroinvestor.dk/nyheder/oekonom-om-brutal-novo-nedtur-ekstremt-voldsomt
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NORDEA ANALYST MICHAEL NOVOD:
"While missing the 25%/25%+ weight loss expectations, we
believe the severe share price reaction is overdone."
"Despite the disappointing results, CagriSema is still the
best weight loss reported in a Phase 3 trial, while the
tolerability profile was in line with stand-alone GLP-1 and
slightly better than what was seen with Wegovy. -
"Hence, that only 57% of patients got to the highest dose of
Cagrisema was likely not due to tolerability issues (one can
then speculate why, but it may have been driven by patients
simply stopping when getting to a satisfactory weight loss).
"With this in mind, we are confident that Novo can also
deliver higher weight loss with Cagrisema in such a trial." Med tak til Stockwatch1
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Mere fra Stockwatch: SIMON BAKER, HEAD OF GLOBAL BIOPHARMA RESEARCH AT REDBURN
ATLANTIC IN LONDON:
"(The weight loss) is considerably lower than the 25% most
were expecting, based on the company's modelling commentary.
"(...) around 23% is probably commercially sufficient longer
term, but inadequate on the day, hence the very sharp drop in
the stock. -
Also of note is that only 57% reached the highest dose,
which will lead to speculation about tolerability despite the
benign language in the press release. The 27% drop (in the share
price) is completely out of proportion fundamentally, but
positioning around this event was huge and it will take a while
for this to stabilise." -
"Baseret på disse tal er forholdet mellem den daglige handelsvolumen på NYSE og Nasdaq Copenhagen cirka 5,32 millioner til 3,19 millioner, hvilket svarer til en ratio på omkring 1,67:1."
Korrigeret for ADR-værdi, og omregnet til daglige handelsværdi så ender vi vist med: at den daglige handelsværdi af Novo Nordisk-aktier på NYSE er cirka dobbelt så stor som på Nasdaq Copenhagen.
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Novo/Jyske Bank: Kursreaktion virker som overreaktion https://proinvestor.com/investornyt/1256447/novo-jyske-bank-kursreaktion-virker-som-overreaktion
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Mere fra Stockwatch: "
UBS ANALYST JO WALTON:
UBS forecasts 70%
probability of $13bn incremental peak sales, which we value at DKK 34.8/share, 7.3%
of total NPV. As we highlighted in our CagriSema preview a worst case result would
be limited differentiation vs Zepbound and could suggest -9% downside to NPV. -
We
typically see stocks react 2-3x NPV on clinical trial readouts, which has been reflected in
the market reaction today".
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