Aktier: En dag med Black Friday tilbud?
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Det kan godt være at det ikke viser sig at være særligt alvorligt med den nye variant. Men det ved vi ikke før til jule tid, og markederne hader, HADER, usikkerhed.
Og nyhederne de næste mange uger (det er allerede begyndt) bliver: Nu har man fundet varianten her eller der. Nu stiger smitten. Nu begrænses rejsemulighederne. Nu lukkes der ned her eller der.
Hvordan tror du markederne reagerer på det?
Hvis man er så tålmodig og rolig som Henrik Henriksen, så værsgo. Man skal så bare ligge aktierne væk og så se på dem igen til januar. Intet galt i det.
Men hvis man ikke vil 5-10% (eller mere) længere ned først, så skal man nok vælge at foretage sig noget.
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Du har ret i at nyhedsflowet er godt i gang med at piske stemningen op, som selvfølgelig smitter af på aktiemarkederne.
Mandag åbner vi sandsynligvis med endnu et brat fald.
Og da har de fleste vel mistet 4-7% på deres portefølge.
Begynder man at sælge der, så er det min mening at man løber en stor risiko for at markedet i dagene efter retter sig og så har du vitterlig mistet de 4-7%.
Men hvem ved, dette kan være det der sætter gang i en større korrektion og så ville man ønske man havde solgt. -
Vi må håbe, at han foreløbig har taget "lidt fejl i hans vurdering og status af Omikron-varianten":
"Omikron-varianten ser ud til at overhale Delta-varianten i de sydlige afrikanske lande, hvilket tyder på, at Omikron er mere smitsom, og at den kan overvinde noget af den naturlige immunitet og vaccineimmunitet".
Philip A. Chan, infektionsmedicinsk læge ved Brown University.
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Det er kun sensationerne der kommer i pressen, men man kan finde andre informationer, så måske vil det være dejlig hvis omicron fortrænger delta.
Omicron variant symptoms ‘unusual but mild’, says South African doctor
The South African doctor who first sounded the alarm on the Omicron variant of the coronavirus said that its symptoms are “unusual but mild” in healthy patients -- but she's worried the strain could cause complications in the elderly and unvaccinated.
New York Post (nypost.com)
Fromsgaard nævnte også at omnicon kunne være possitiv.
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Det hele har jo taget fuldstændig overhånd.
Selvfølgelig skal smitten begrænses - skal man gøre det all in? Nej, selvfølgelig ikke*. Vi skal altså tilbage til det normale liv, men det er der jo ingen politikere der ønsker, for alle statsledere der har "gjort noget" de seneste par år har vundet stemmer, så selvfølgelig ønsker de restriktioner i øst og vest uden nogen former for omtanke. Det er jo dybt idioti at du skal tage et mundbind på i supermarked i morgen, mens hvis du går ind på bodegaen og sidder tæt op ad hinanden i timevis så skal du ikke. For et rationelt menneske (som undertegnede), så er det komplet uforståeligt.
De ting jeg har fanget i medierne er, at den nyeste variant er en mildere variant - fuldstændig ligesom Delta var/er. Den bliver altså dummere og dummere og mange er vaccineret og får kun meget milde symptomer om nogen. Vi bliver simpelthen nødt til at leve normalt igen...
- Det her med at 50 hjertepatienter pludselig var smittet på et sygehus skal jo begrænses. Det virker ekstremt lemfældigt at det overhovedet kan lade sig gøre. Men os andre der bevæger os normalt, bør måske bare tænke os om - uden at lave deciderede restriktioner. Dem som er uvaccineret har ligesom taget et valg om deres egen sundhed, ligesom de tågehorn som nægter at lade deres børn vaccinere mod bestemte sygdomme. Det er deres valg. Få prioriteret at vaccinere alle de ældre og svage med 3. stik.
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Hyst1
Jeg synes bestemt ikke, at artiklen i New York Times, kan betegnes som en "sensations-artikel", som dem vi kender fra tabloid-pressen. Infektionsmedicinsk læge Philip Chan, går jeg ud fra er citeret korrekt. Og det er min opfattelse, at flertallet af "infektions-specialister" stort set er enige med Philip Chan i hans foreløbige vurdering af Omicron, som er beskrevet i artiklen i New York Times.
Vi må dog håbe på, at Omicron ikke medfører en yderligere stigning i antallet af indlæggelser i f.eks. Danmark - og ikke kommer til at skade erhvervslivet i form af stigninger i sygdomsfravær og nedlukninger i de kommende uger og måneder etc.
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SSI's foreløbige vurdering af Omicron:
"Et stort antal mutationer for virusset er ikke nødvendigvis en fordel, da det kan medføre en nedsat funktion. Omkring 15 af mutationerne i B.1.1.529 sidder i et område (receptor binding domain), hvor mutationer tidligere har vist sig at nedsætte følsomhed over for vacciner. Derudover sidder 3 af mutationerne i furinkløvningsstedet, som er et område, der potentielt kan give virusset øget smitsomhed".
Se i øvrigt denne opdatering fra WHO, som udkom for et kort tid siden
Update on Omicron
On 26 November 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 a variant of concern, named Omicron, on the advice of WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE). This decision was based on the evidence presented to the TAG-VE that Omicron has several mutations that may have an impact on how it behaves, for example, on how easily it spreads or the severity of illness it causes. Here is a summary of what is currently known. Current knowledge about Omicron Researchers in South Africa and around the world are conducting studies to better understand many aspects of Omicron and will continue to share the findings of these studies as they become available. Transmissibility: It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants, including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron or other factors. Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university studies—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key. Effectiveness of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection Preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron (ie, people who have previously had COVID-19 could become reinfected more easily with Omicron), as compared to other variants of concern, but information is limited. More information on this will become available in the coming days and weeks. Effectiveness of vaccines: WHO is working with technical partners to understand the potential impact of this variant on our existing countermeasures, including vaccines. Vaccines remain critical to reducing severe disease and death, including against the dominant circulating virus, Delta. Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death. Effectiveness of current tests: The widely used PCR tests continue to detect infection, including infection with Omicron, as we have seen with other variants as well. Studies are ongoing to determine whether there is any impact on other types of tests, including rapid antigen detection tests. Effectiveness of current treatments: Corticosteroids and IL6 Receptor Blockers will still be effective for managing patients with severe COVID-19. Other treatments will be assessed to see if they are still as effective given the changes to parts of the virus in the Omicron variant. Studies underway At the present time, WHO is coordinating with a large number of researchers around the world to better understand Omicron. Studies currently underway or underway shortly include assessments of transmissibility, severity of infection (including symptoms), performance of vaccines and diagnostic tests, and effectiveness of treatments. WHO encourages countries to contribute the collection and sharing of hospitalized patient data through the WHO COVID-19 Clinical Data Platform to rapidly describe clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. More information will emerge in the coming days and weeks. WHO’s TAG-VE will continue to monitor and evaluate the data as it becomes available and assess how mutations in Omicron alter the behaviour of the virus. Recommended actions for countries As Omicron has been designated a Variant of Concern, there are several actions WHO recommends countries to undertake, including enhancing surveillance and sequencing of cases; sharing genome sequences on publicly available databases, such as GISAID; reporting initial cases or clusters to WHO; performing field investigations and laboratory assessments to better understand if Omicron has different transmission or disease characteristics, or impacts effectiveness of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics or public health and social measures. More detail in the announcement from 26 November. Countries should continue to implement the effective public health measures to reduce COVID-19 circulation overall, using a risk analysis and science-based approach. They should increase some public health and medical capacities to manage an increase in cases. WHO is providing countries with support and guidance for both readiness and response. In addition, it is vitally important that inequities in access to COVID-19 vaccines are urgently addressed to ensure that vulnerable groups everywhere, including health workers and older persons, receive their first and second doses, alongside equitable access to treatment and diagnostics. Recommended actions for people The most effective steps individuals can take to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus is to keep a physical distance of at least 1 metre from others; wear a well-fitting mask; open windows to improve ventilation; avoid poorly ventilated or crowded spaces; keep hands clean; cough or sneeze into a bent elbow or tissue; and get vaccinated when it’s their turn. WHO will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available, including following meetings of the TAG-VE. In addition, information will be available on WHO’s digital and social media platforms. Reference material: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Further information on TAG-VE
(www.who.int)
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Der var over 30 mutationer blot på Island i marts 2020 af den første variant af covid-19...
Det her synes at være drevet af en besynderlig trang til at tale en sygdom op, som vi efterhånden har lært at leve med, men som konstant skal skaleres op, selvom alle tal viser at dødeligheden er nedadgående og har været det over 1 år. Så tales der om, at vaccinerne måske ikke virker på denne variant, hvilket er ganske usandsynligt, for så er jeg bange for at vi ikke taler om den samme sygdom længere, men at gryden holdes i kog... -
en virus kan vel meget vel undgå vaksinevirkningen og være mere smitsom, men samtidig have et sygdomsforløb som er langt mildere - de første meldinger fra
Sydafrika tyder på at dette kan være tilfældet.Ergo vil det være en fordel at omicon bliver den mere udbredte variant, hvis dette er tilfældet.
Men lige nu maler for mange fanden på vægen.
Så vidt jeg forstår har de enkelte mutationer også eksisteret i de tidligere varianter, bare ikke alle sammen i same samme variant.
Så min pointe er at det kunne være en fordel i forhold til hele pandemien.
So time will show.
Omicron symptoms mild so far, says South African doctor who spotted it
The South African doctor who found the new variant says patients are showing very mild symptoms so far.
(www.bbc.com)
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Ja, det må da ikke kunne ske...
50 hjertepatienter svarer vel i omegnen til 100.000 andre tilfældigt smittede i teoretiske tal i forhold til dødelighed.
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Hyst.
Bemærk at citatet i New York Times alene vedrører de sydlige afrikanske lande. Og at vi er stort set enige i den aktuelle status for f.eks. DK.
Håber panikken etc., vil falde til ro på aktiemarkedet allerede i løbet af i morgen, hvad angår nervøsiteten for Omicrons potentielle udbredelse og efterfølgende skadevirkninger m.m.;-)
God aktiedag;-)
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Så længe vi ikke har mere styr på om folk flyver med en corona infektion, så er der sgu ikke meget håb! Men det burde jo ikke være så svært at tjekke folk inden de stiger på et fly og heller ikke tjekke dem inden man lukker den ind i sit land. I lille Danmark gør vi jo heller ikke noget ved det. Lidt paradoksalt så er det jo for at please erhvervslivet som vi støtter med aktiekøb
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Op eller ned? Frygter at tyngdekraften er tilbage igen efter en lille stigning.
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Gad vide om det nu går opad til toppen igen? Det er lidt skizofrent
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