Bavarian Nordic — Juni 2023
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Med det lagt oveni manglen på et efficacy study står de nuværende fase 3 forsøg ret smalt i forhold til en eventuel godkendelse. Et gæt ville være, at det nok kræver et nyt forsøg med en modificeret vaccine baseret på fx XBB.1.5 ligesom Pfizers seneste FDA-ansøgning: https://www.pfizer.com/news/announcements/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-applications-us-fda-omicron-xbb15-adapted-monovalent
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Det er dog et ret mudret billede, hvor der vist p.t. ikke findes en klar konsensus om, hvad der skal til for at få godkendt nextgen vacciner. Læs fx: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/health/covid-vaccines-nextgen.html
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Countries including the US, the UK, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands are seeing an increase in Mpox cases in the past few weeks. Health officials in Los Angeles and Colorado have issued alerts and launched vaccination campaigns to protect those in high risk groups, while London has extended the vaccination programme for Mpox due to the spike in cases in the city.
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Mpox is continuing to circulate in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where access to vaccines is patchy or non-existent.
A letter to the Lancet by Japanese researchers earlier this month warned about how the epidemic could spread if left unchecked. They suggest that by the time an epidemic is nearing its end, cumulative cases are generally between 0.1% and 1.5% of the estimated population size of men who have sex with men, which is the group in which the current global outbreak is primarily
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spreading.
"If this empirical pattern was applied to Japan, which has an estimated population size [of men who have sex with men] of 0.7 million, an epidemic of up to 10,000 cases might be expected in the absence of successful containment," the researchers say.
The key to stopping the disease from spreading through Asia, they say, will be vaccine rollout in low- and middle-income countries.
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Mpox continues to spread in countries with little access to vaccines
Mpox is continuing to circulate in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where access to vaccines is patchy or non-existent.
(www.gavi.org)
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Hvorfor er Helge Larsen altid nervøs for aktierne i juni måned? Hvad går debatten om de danske investordarlings Zealand Pharma og Bavarian Nordic ud på? Og hvad i alverden sker der for Lundbecks direktørfyring?
Lyt med på ugens afsnit af investeringspodcasten med Hansen & Larsen, hvor det også skal handle om laks, inflation og centralbankernes udsigter til at hæve renterne igen. https://www.proinvestor.com/boards/113548
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Det er meget snart: Topline results expected around mid-2023
COPENHAGEN, Denmark, April 11, 2023 – Bavarian Nordic A/S (OMX: BAVA) announced today that the Phase 3 clinical trial of MVA-BN
RSV, the Company’s investigational vaccine for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in adults ≥60 years of age, has now accrued the number of cases required to complete the primary efficacy analysis, which is expected around mid-2023. Adjudicated data have confirmed enough cases with both 2+ sy -
Bavarian Nordic kursmål
20 juni 2023: Nordea 424 kroner fra Anbefalingen er fortsat “køb”.
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maj 2023: Citigroup 407 kroner. Anbefalingen er uændret “køb”.
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maj 2023: Cowen 350 kroner. Anbefalingen er dog uændret positiv “outperform”.
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marts 2023: Danske Bank 425 kroner Anbefalingen er uændret “køb”.
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februar 2023: Needham 371 kroner. Anbefalingen “køb” gentages.
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februar 2023: Jefferies 325 kroner. Anbefalingen er fortsat “køb”.
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Ingen kan vide, hvad der præcist kommer til at ske i fremtiden, men jeg benytter kursmål fra banker og analysevirksomheder som pejlemærker. Folk med økonomisk indsigt og virksomhedsforståelse - udannede folk - har lavet en analyse af virksomheden i dag og bedømt potentialet i fremtiden.
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Når 6-8 anbefaler køb og har markant højere kursmål, så viser det klart, at virksomheden i dag ikke køre dårligt - skrevet meget beskedent. Det går godt, bedømmer de. At kursmålene er markant højere end i dag viser, at der indenfor 1-3 år også er meget stor sandsynlighed for, at vi på et tidspunkt har stor chance for at ramme en væsentlig højere kurs end i dag. Det har vi også gjort et par gange indenfor de seneste to år.
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@1964: Rolf svarede på mail til mig, at resultaterne forventes "denne sommer". Så det er fra nu til slut august
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Var der ikke en igår, der mente at Bava manglede RSV data fra flere år, fandt dette: The Phase 2 program in older adults included a revaccination of subjects after one year, following which the immune responses were rapidly and significantly increased, notably in subjects with the weakest immunity prior to the booster vaccination2.
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@biobio tak for input på COVID udmeldingen, jeg undrede mig også over deres formulering i pressemed.... som aktionær synes jeg også vejen frem for en potentiel vaccine virker til at være mere end et long shot og jeg mener ikke det vil give mening at jagte denne uendeligt lange vej til godkendelse, hvor de øvrige spillere konstant vil ligge med en helt anden hastighed ... så det vil være spild af aktionærernes penge
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Monkeypox (mpox) cases confirmed in South Korea, especially Seoul, in June. Maintain basic health precautions.
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