Genmab — Februar 2024

E_L

could well be. not easy to estimate this guidance either, not so sure what to expect from the cost side. Actually their first Darzalex guidance last year was quite good in hindsight, with a mid point of 9.7bn

JørgenVarnæs

I'm looking for a more direct connection between development cost and clinical effect - till now a lot of money has been thrown at early stage programs with no visible effect. This has forced analysts to consider development initiatives as pure loss-giving activities - maybe this is why Genmab is considered a cost sinkhole by the market...?

E_L

what do you expect from them then, concretely? because the only way i can imagine them proving this to you is to grind through these early stage programs into maturity and hopefully approval. i don't know how else they can do this? isn't that what biotech is all about?

JørgenVarnæs

Sure - I want to see signs of clinical effect coming out of phase 1 programs. So far we get nothing or vailed references to synergistic effect

JørgenVarnæs

What is the promise of the early stage pipeline? We have no idea

JørgenVarnæs

We have heard about solid tumors for quite some time now - but only seen glimpses of effect from tisutomab

JørgenVarnæs

Is there anything there? We don't know

E_L

ok, we would all like to hear that, but you know that there is a very small chance that we will get info on that at the earnings report.

E_L

It comes when the data is ready , and preferably at a medical conference

E_L

and to remind you , bringing out the early data on HexaCD38 wasn't exactly a very big success lol. my guess is that they will actually become even more carefull bringing out new
data...

JørgenVarnæs

...because data wasn't deemed to be very KYSO - in fact the data has changed market sentiment away from opt-in.

JørgenVarnæs

here we are in year 24 of GENs existence - CD38 is closed country, cd3cd20 is heavily contested by Roche - and little else to show

E_L

Kesimpta, tepezza, tisotumab, talquetamab, teclistamab, amivantamab, these are not little drugs. the technology is there. But there is nobody that can guarantee a repeat, that is true.

JørgenVarnæs

...with how much ownership? GEN is being traded as a bond with the royalties from dara and the cash holding as a foundation. Other than that, there is very little of value in the valuation

JørgenVarnæs

KYSO must be about how much value GEN leaves on the table for the partners

E_L

which is why they want 50/50 partnerships in the future. which they hope to get from the stronger position they are in now. beter deals were not possible in the past , unfortunately

JørgenVarnæs

Better deals were possible every step of the way

JørgenVarnæs

GEN hasn't missed one single step in messing up values

Sukkeralf

I think you are unbelievable harsh in your criticism of Genmab JV - its still one of the most successful biotechs in Europe

JørgenVarnæs

Seriously - take out dara and cash from the valuation and you are left with dust and tubleweeds. Is that the hallmark of a successful R&D organization?