Genmab — September 2019
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CAR skriver: We expect Genmab to report data from its three most interesting proprietary clinical projects in H2(19) and see good potential for a step-up in share price before the end of 2019 if just one of these proprietary projects has a successful read-out.
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Although the initial data will be limited, the scope of each of these three projects is likely to confer multi-billion USD opportunities in terms of peak sales.
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The lack of visibility into these catalysts at this time suggests to us that only limited value of these projects has already been discounted, and for this reason we see a favourable asymmetric risk/reward ratio from current share price levels (17% downside versus 42% upside) which we think investors should buy into at this time.
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For these early clinical proprietary projects we have made top-down forecast assumptions, rather than bottom-up forecasts. We believe enapotumab vedotin (solid tumours, initially lung cancer), GEN1029 (solid tumours) and GEN3013 (B-cell derived blood cancers) each address markets that may eventually rival Darzalex in peak sales potential in a blue-sky scenario.
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Currently, we model in peak sales potential for each of the projects at half of our Darzalex forecast, but with low probability of success (15-20%) and higher risk-adjusted clinical development costs (70% for progression to Phase II, 28% for progression to Phase III). Collectively, the three projects now account for DKK428 per share of our SOTP-derived share price target of DKK1,587
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In this update we have also adjusted our modelling of Arzerra in multiple sclerosis on the back of top-line data reported on 30 August. We have increased the probability of success to 85% (65%) but have lowered the royalty rate to 10% (12%), as confirmed by Genmab.
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Så får I ikke mere
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Rolig Solsen..Bliv endelig ved med at bringe emnet op.
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Hertil morgen er vi 37% oppe for de seneste tre år. Det har været en lidt træls periode, men den slags sker nu engang for mange gode selskaber. For Novo har det været det samme. Den aktie er også på vej ud af dødvandet.
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De tålmodige er ikke sådan at ryste af.
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tak BiotechPro - interessant at se, at pipelinen langt om længe begynder at blive tillagt noget mere sandsynlighed
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well - Dara ligger med meget højere sandsynlighed i den her type valuation. Jeg kan næsten kun forestille mig, at CAR bruger samme WACC til DCF - og så bliver dara straffet i udregningerne
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