Genmab — April 2019

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

God morgen.

[transalp]

Go morgen:)

[bibob]

God morgen fra solrige og skyfattige Torremolinos.

[E_L]

looks like they are recruiting another 20% more patients in this phase 2 SC trial
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT03412565?A=17&B=18&C=merged#StudyPageTop

[E_L]

a bit more on Teprotumumab https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257519-horizon-pharma-teprotumumab-become-key-commercial-asset-2020s

[E_L]

and "I think it's kind of a watershed moment in how we'll look at the treatment of this disease --" https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/aace/79493?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=mb_endocrine

[E_L]

""I think one of the exciting aspects is that, this drug, the effect, is relatively similar to what I'm achieving with surgery." "....main message is that the result that you're seeing here is really significant, and clinically significant. "

[Solsen]

SC trial did expand in oct 18.

[E_L]

yes, and they are doing it again, in oct from 180 > 199, and it seemed fully recrtuited , then to 204, now opened up again for anticipated 240

[E_L]

it would be nice to hear the reason, if the regulators requested it for example

[kkjoel]

Tak EL - link til fin seekingalpha-artikel om Teprotumumab (ifm. Horizon Pharmas 2019Q1) - med ref. til omsætningsestimater fra både HP og journalisten selv. Ham kan man vist roligt kalde "omsætningsoptimist" - han mener snildt de kan tage 2,5-3 gange de pris de selv estimerer ("..in excess of $250,000 or $300,000 per patient per year.."). Dog alene ved HPs eget esimat (som Peter12 nævnte i går) på $750M, vil der rulle 250MDKK til GEN/år. Men håber skam da journalisten får ret

[kkjoel]

$750M*0,05(royalty%)*6,5($/DKK)=244.

[E_L]

i think that writer may be a bit optimistic . He has a fair point though on potential upside in case of sales outside of the US, which seem not to be included in the $750 Horizon estimate

[kkjoel]

Jep enig! (Baseret på yderligere faktorer svinger han sig faktisk op til at estimere "$3.7-6Bn market in US alone".. hvilket i bedst fald ville give GEN 2MiaDKK, bare i US. Det kommer nok ikke til at ske lige med det samme. Så lad os bare få armene ned igen.)

[kkjoel]

Men 250M må vel være minimumsforventningen til royalties indenfor, hvad.... 2-3-4 år?

[Sukkeralf]

Do we know what the operation cost and if there are any downsides from that ?

[Sukkeralf]

I think the rule of thump is at least 5 years to reach peak sale - but in this case if its just USA and thats an easy market it might go faster

[E_L]

as far as i am aware there are no costs to Genmab. and you may be correct in relative fast peak sales in US, given that there really is no alternative

[E_L]

a bit of biotech history "The entrepreneur behind the cancer immunotherapy revolution" https://news.yahoo.com/entrepreneur-behind-cancer-immunotherapy-revolution-083047116.html

[Solsen]

EL - to my knowledge the first three arms recruite 60 pts each and are what we awaite to se before the submission with COLUMBA. I belive its the Kyprolis arm which is now on 60 pts too.