Genmab — April 2019

[kkjoel]

Tak EL - link til fin seekingalpha-artikel om Teprotumumab (ifm. Horizon Pharmas 2019Q1) - med ref. til omsætningsestimater fra både HP og journalisten selv. Ham kan man vist roligt kalde "omsætningsoptimist" - han mener snildt de kan tage 2,5-3 gange de pris de selv estimerer ("..in excess of $250,000 or $300,000 per patient per year.."). Dog alene ved HPs eget esimat (som Peter12 nævnte i går) på $750M, vil der rulle 250MDKK til GEN/år. Men håber skam da journalisten får ret

[kkjoel]

$750M*0,05(royalty%)*6,5($/DKK)=244.

[E_L]

i think that writer may be a bit optimistic . He has a fair point though on potential upside in case of sales outside of the US, which seem not to be included in the $750 Horizon estimate

[kkjoel]

Jep enig! (Baseret på yderligere faktorer svinger han sig faktisk op til at estimere "$3.7-6Bn market in US alone".. hvilket i bedst fald ville give GEN 2MiaDKK, bare i US. Det kommer nok ikke til at ske lige med det samme. Så lad os bare få armene ned igen.)

[kkjoel]

Men 250M må vel være minimumsforventningen til royalties indenfor, hvad.... 2-3-4 år?

[Sukkeralf]

Do we know what the operation cost and if there are any downsides from that ?

[Sukkeralf]

I think the rule of thump is at least 5 years to reach peak sale - but in this case if its just USA and thats an easy market it might go faster

[E_L]

as far as i am aware there are no costs to Genmab. and you may be correct in relative fast peak sales in US, given that there really is no alternative

[E_L]

a bit of biotech history "The entrepreneur behind the cancer immunotherapy revolution" https://news.yahoo.com/entrepreneur-behind-cancer-immunotherapy-revolution-083047116.html

[Solsen]

EL - to my knowledge the first three arms recruite 60 pts each and are what we awaite to se before the submission with COLUMBA. I belive its the Kyprolis arm which is now on 60 pts too.

[E_L]

ok, those numbers make sense. you don't think we now need to wait also for Kyprolis data before submission?

[E_L]

article in Cancer earlier this month "Daratumumab in multiple myeloma" https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cncr.32065

[E_L]

now in full available via https://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.32065

[Sukkeralf]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5933537/pdf/10.1177_2515135518763280.pdf

[E_L]

@Sukkeralf do you still expect anything from the CD123xCD3 ? i noticed last week another 2 hospitals are 'withdrawn' in that clinical trial...

[Sukkeralf]

Nope - no hopes here......but only because the clinical holds we have seen !

[jkj]

http://ir.horizon-pharma.com/events/event-details/dr-r-douglass-aace-ir-tedoptic-presentation

[Vitus]

Det er så nu vi må leve op til Helges titel på hans bog... lettere omskreven.... “De tålmodige investorer” -:)

[JohnW]

Kunne nu godt ønske mig lidt turbo på den der RTOR.

[Tandfeen-2]

Ja også mig. Det må være den shutdown der giver forsinkelsen. Hvornår længe varede
den nu? En måned ikk’?