Genmab — Januar 2019
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SEB: We consider Genmab a high quality biotech company and the recent impressive MAIA frontline data will further drive the uptake of Darzalex. However, all of the decline in the share price sparked by the solid tumour setback for Darzalex in May has been recovered and Genmab trades close to our fair value. We expect more investor focus on costs in relation with the Q4 2018 report and downgrade our recommendation from Buy to Hold.
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Target price lifted to DKK 1,100 (DKK 1,030)
Cost increase is not a big concern for us as long as it comes on the back of pipeline progress, but if numbers reflect a bright revenue outlook, then costs need to be accurate in order to model the value of the company. We are below consensus (FactSet) for EBIT 2019 by 20%, largely due to operating costs. Longer term we are ahead of expectations and a Hold rating seems fair for now.
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MEN snart.. ofa kommer formentlig til at generere pæn indkomst i MS (fra 2020). Derudover er der Teprotumumab (som i øvrigt blev omtalt af Horizon Pharma på JPM forleden) - som Horizon regner med kommer på markedet i 2020: de estimerer et topsalg på $ 750 mio. Det er i hvert fald 2 konkrete indtægtsstrømme, der ligger på den ret korte bane. Dem har markedet slet ikke indpriset. Det synes jeg ikke er rettidig omhu.
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