Genmab — Januar 2019

[StockBull]

also including the possibility of any potential price adjustment exUS. We forecast Darzalex sales of $3.1bn which is broadly in line with consensus of
$3.09bn. We expect guidance for revenue of DKr3,400-3,800m and Operating profit
of DKr1,600-1,800m. Our estimates are towards the top end of this range, with
consensus slightly above the top end of the range. Consensus appears to factor in
c.$50m more milestones in FY19; however ,with Darzalex forecasts in line we do not
expect significant downsid

[StockBull]

with the FY19 guidance in Feb'19.

[StockBull]

Consensus Comparison
Our 2018 revenue estimates are in line with Bloomberg consensus in 2018, although
we are ahead on Core Operating profit (5% ahead) as consensus is forecasting OpEx
towards the top end of the range vs. our assumption for the mid-point. We are
significantly ahead on EPS as we believe consensus misses the recognition of
deferred tax assets, which will wipe out the Q1-Q3 tax charge. In 2019 we are below
consensus (6%/DKr220m on the top line and 14%/DKr292m on Op Profit) as
conse

[Bulder]

@gentogen: "formulation changes" er vel netop når de tilsætter rhuph20?

[StockBull]

as
consensus appears to factor in additional $50m in milestones vs. our estimates. In
2020, we are broadly in line with consensus on the topline and operating profit, and
below on net income – we assume consensus still has tax losses being utilised when
we believe they will be fully utilised by 2020

[StockBull]

Risks to Rating and Price Target
Downside risks include

1. Darzalex misses consensus expectations due to competition from other antiCD38’s particularly isatuximab, which could lead to price declines,
   reducing Darzalex sales potential or lower-than-expected uptake.
2. Stronger than expected competitor data which could threaten the position of
   Darzalex in frontline multiple myeloma.
3. Failure to successfully develop a subcutaneous version of Darzalex, which could
   remove any of the advantages of c

[StockBull]

advantages of competitor CD38s over Darzalex and also
fail to extend the patent life of Darzalex.
Upside risks include

1. We also see potential for upside from faster FDA approval of Darzalex in frontline
   Myeloma

[Bulder]

Men det har efter min mening ikke den store betydning, hvornår sc kan godkendes. Hvis data viser det, vi forventer, så ryger kursen op, selvom salgseffekten først kommer ½ år senere.

[Legolas23]

Jeg mener ikke der er guidet for milestone ifm Maia. Det kunne også rykke pænt, hvis vi så en godkendelse omkring hjørnet pbg RTOR.

[Tandfeen-2]

Tak for oplægget Stockbull.

[bibob]

Lidt mere short i Genmab i dec. https://www.nordnet.dk/mux/web/analys/nyheter/visaNyhet.html?itemid=509492013&sourcecode=ddk

[gentogen]

Angående 11:48 (Bulder), så var det også sådan jeg mente det (altså nok omfattet af 'exclusion')

[Bulder]

vi er enige

[Tandfeen-2]

Skuffende luk

[polle1]

Generelt i C25 at luften gik lidt af ballonen i løbet af eftermiddagen !

[bibob]

Det er " bare " 9 dg mere med 10 kr stigning, så er 1200 nået. ;-). No problem.

[polle1]

Enig, bibob, vi er jo blot lige ved at blive lidt forvænte

[JKY_VH]

Jeg foretrækker nu en eksponentiel stigning:-)

[bibob]

Ja JKY, men vi må tá hvad vi kan få i øjeblikket.

[JKY_VH]

præcis bibob og en flad 10`er om dagen er heller ikke at foragte:-)