Genmab — Januar 2019
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2019 guidance could have a degree of conservatism given
recent results
The key guidance metric the market is focused on is Darzalex in-market sales. There
is a focus on earnings and operating profit by some investors; however, given that
Genmab are building a pipeline for future value creation we do not believe investors
should be too focused on 2019 operating profit. Heading into 2019 we expect
Genmab to guide for Darzalex in market sales of $2.8-3.1bn, factoring in the launch of MAIA although -
also including the possibility of any potential price adjustment exUS. We forecast Darzalex sales of $3.1bn which is broadly in line with consensus of
$3.09bn. We expect guidance for revenue of DKr3,400-3,800m and Operating profit
of DKr1,600-1,800m. Our estimates are towards the top end of this range, with
consensus slightly above the top end of the range. Consensus appears to factor in
c.$50m more milestones in FY19; however ,with Darzalex forecasts in line we do not
expect significant downsid -
Consensus Comparison
Our 2018 revenue estimates are in line with Bloomberg consensus in 2018, although
we are ahead on Core Operating profit (5% ahead) as consensus is forecasting OpEx
towards the top end of the range vs. our assumption for the mid-point. We are
significantly ahead on EPS as we believe consensus misses the recognition of
deferred tax assets, which will wipe out the Q1-Q3 tax charge. In 2019 we are below
consensus (6%/DKr220m on the top line and 14%/DKr292m on Op Profit) as
conse -
as
consensus appears to factor in additional $50m in milestones vs. our estimates. In
2020, we are broadly in line with consensus on the topline and operating profit, and
below on net income – we assume consensus still has tax losses being utilised when
we believe they will be fully utilised by 2020 -
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Downside risks include- Darzalex misses consensus expectations due to competition from other antiCD38’s particularly isatuximab, which could lead to price declines,
reducing Darzalex sales potential or lower-than-expected uptake. - Stronger than expected competitor data which could threaten the position of
Darzalex in frontline multiple myeloma. - Failure to successfully develop a subcutaneous version of Darzalex, which could
remove any of the advantages of c
- Darzalex misses consensus expectations due to competition from other antiCD38’s particularly isatuximab, which could lead to price declines,
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Tak for oplægget Stockbull.
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