Genmab — November 2017

[StockBull]

however as far as I can see on EI its a short term target that 1744 can be reached when 1 line approved

[GeorgeBest]

Totally agree E L. Especially as nothing changed during those 10 days. Anyway I am always very sceptical to target prices which are totally out of consensus with the rest of the market.

[GeorgeBest]

1st line approval will not change much Stockbull. It is 100% derisked of the analysts. Furthermore ALCYONE is not the important one. MAIA is the important. And you will have to wait to 2018 until you see MAIA related 1st line sales

[GeorgeBest]

Sorry.
You will have to wait to 2019 with MAIA sales!!!

[StockBull]

we are always waiting for some data and of course share price will increase when those milestones accomplished. Everybody expect that darzalex will sell for 7 B around 2022 but that does not mean that this sale is included in todays share price. Thus I think its realistic that we hit 1700kr when 1 line being approved in May 2018

[GeorgeBest]

You are far too optimistic. It will not happen.

[StockBull]

Well in Q4-2016 everybody also said 1400 within 6 month was too optimistic and we hit 1488 in april 2017 so I thinl its realsisic with 1700 in April 2018 - also seen from the point of view that C20, DAX etc. increased +15% in 2017 and Genmab now underperforming compared to C20

[E_L]

The Dutch National Health Care Institute advising NOT to add daratumumab to the base Insurance package, unless price negotiations improve cost-effectiveness https://www.zorginstituutnederland.nl/publicaties/adviezen/2017/11/29/pakketadvies-daratumumab-darzalex-bij-multipel-myeloom

[E_L]

sort of expected after the advisory committee adviced this last month. usefull read of the pdf if you understand dutch...

[StockBull]

OK, whats the base - One could then think its added to the next insurance level (above the base)

[E_L]

they sort of indicate DarBorDex needs to drop 30% in price, DarLenDex 70% to get into the cost effectiveness range...

[E_L]

'" relevant is also that part of the extra cost of DarLenDex are that treatment is longer" . No shit Sherlock... It works , so patients live longer, so you have to pay longer... who would have thought...

[StockBull]

OK, so how will the treat the people with MM ? I understand Darzalex are price competitive compared to other treatment options

[Sukkeralf]

With LenDex or BorDex

[E_L]

and this will be used by the ministry of health to negotiate with JNJ. The letter asks parties to do this as fast as possible in the interest of patients and in the mean time they ask the manufacturer to provide Dara at the cost of the manufacturer...

[GeorgeBest]

Are the Dutch the European mainland Scottish? Why not give it for free?

[E_L]

yeah... NL is a nice market, with good health care, but i believe it is too small for JNJ to set a precedent by dropping prices too much... Let's hope negotiations go fast

[StockBull]

NL healte ministry are doing what they have to do - it would be stupid not to try negotiate a better price

[rex_pacis]

Sure, but I wonder why NL should not pay the same as other countries

[StockBull]

eventually they will have to come to some kind of agreement