Genmab — November 2017

StockBull

as far as I understand its fair value now

StockBull

not sure if that was the case earlier

E_L

whatever the reason, they could have thought about that 10 days ago. it shows how carefull you have to be to listen to guys like that though...

StockBull

sure - its problematic Bryan Garnier increase target to 2072 from 1987 on nov. 15 and then reduce to 1680 on nov. 27

StockBull

however as far as I can see on EI its a short term target that 1744 can be reached when 1 line approved

GeorgeBest

Totally agree E L. Especially as nothing changed during those 10 days. Anyway I am always very sceptical to target prices which are totally out of consensus with the rest of the market.

GeorgeBest

1st line approval will not change much Stockbull. It is 100% derisked of the analysts. Furthermore ALCYONE is not the important one. MAIA is the important. And you will have to wait to 2018 until you see MAIA related 1st line sales

GeorgeBest

Sorry.
You will have to wait to 2019 with MAIA sales!!!

StockBull

we are always waiting for some data and of course share price will increase when those milestones accomplished. Everybody expect that darzalex will sell for 7 B around 2022 but that does not mean that this sale is included in todays share price. Thus I think its realistic that we hit 1700kr when 1 line being approved in May 2018

GeorgeBest

You are far too optimistic. It will not happen.

StockBull

Well in Q4-2016 everybody also said 1400 within 6 month was too optimistic and we hit 1488 in april 2017 so I thinl its realsisic with 1700 in April 2018 - also seen from the point of view that C20, DAX etc. increased +15% in 2017 and Genmab now underperforming compared to C20

E_L

The Dutch National Health Care Institute advising NOT to add daratumumab to the base Insurance package, unless price negotiations improve cost-effectiveness https://www.zorginstituutnederland.nl/publicaties/adviezen/2017/11/29/pakketadvies-daratumumab-darzalex-bij-multipel-myeloom

E_L

sort of expected after the advisory committee adviced this last month. usefull read of the pdf if you understand dutch...

StockBull

OK, whats the base - One could then think its added to the next insurance level (above the base)

E_L

they sort of indicate DarBorDex needs to drop 30% in price, DarLenDex 70% to get into the cost effectiveness range...

E_L

'" relevant is also that part of the extra cost of DarLenDex are that treatment is longer" . No shit Sherlock... It works , so patients live longer, so you have to pay longer... who would have thought...

StockBull

OK, so how will the treat the people with MM ? I understand Darzalex are price competitive compared to other treatment options

Sukkeralf

With LenDex or BorDex

E_L

and this will be used by the ministry of health to negotiate with JNJ. The letter asks parties to do this as fast as possible in the interest of patients and in the mean time they ask the manufacturer to provide Dara at the cost of the manufacturer...

GeorgeBest

Are the Dutch the European mainland Scottish? Why not give it for free?