Genmab — Juli 2017
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Carnegie genoptager dækning af GEN med Hold, target 1392
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CAR: The current success of Darzalex for multiple myeloma has transformed the company. We expect revenue to reach DKK14.7bn in 2026, a compound annual growth rate of 20% from a base of DKK2.3bn in 2016. We estimate that 84% of revenue in 2026 will be based on Darzalex royalties. In multiple myeloma alone, we forecast unadjusted peak sales of USD8.6bn against consensus of about USD8bn.
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CAR: The next transformation of the Genmab story could be the development of Arzerra for multiple sclerosis and new antibody-based cancer treatments.
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CAR: Genmab currently has two projects in early clinical development (tisotumab vedotin and HuMax-AXL-ADX) and has said that two more projects from its pre-clinical pipeline will advance to the clinic in H2(17).
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CAR: Based on our estimates the current share price fully discounts our base case SOTP valuation. Our bull case shows potential upside to DKK2,572 per share, primarily driven by new indications beyond multiple myeloma, particularly solid tumours. However, we find the risk/reward asymmetrical. Our bear case points to DKK858 per share.
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CAR: The next important data point is likely to be announced in Q3(17) when the interim analysis of the ALCYONE trial (Da-VMP versus VMP in patients ineligible for autologous stem cell therapy) is expected.
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CAR: The ALCYONE trial I is the first of three phase III trials of Darzalex in first line multiple myeloma to report data. Our current probability of success for Darzalex in first line multiple myeloma is 85%. If we increase it to 100%, Darzalex NPV increases by DKK102 per share.
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Tak for det BiotechPro. Ud fra dine kommentarer ligner det mest en "ikke-analyse" fra Carnegies side. Vi tror ikke en skid på Gen ud over dara...
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Deres seneste analyse var ikke synderligt tynget af indsigt eller viden. Den her analyse ser også ud til at man bruger "obligationsmodellen" til at estimere pengestrømmen...
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Det er lige det. Seler og livrem analyser i biotek er i bedste fald ubrugelige
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Man vel forestille sig at for de patienter der ikke får dara I 1. linie, vil få det I anden linie, når første behandling ikke mere virker
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SC dara maintenance, darkombo med andre medikamenter og så kan dara nok alligevel ikke forvente 100pct penetration i 1st line
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Så dara vil nok ændre landskabet markant
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