Priserne på korn mv er steget voldsomt den seneste måneds tid pga tørke i USA. Selv om vi stadig er under niveauet i 2008 og analytikerne forventer stigende priser de næste måneder efterfulgt af fald frem mod årsskiftet, så har Firstfarms kursen endnu ikke reageret. Firstfarms burde vel nu kunne "låses" ind salgspriser på højt niveau i år på baggrund af den kommende produktion i Slovakiet og Rumænien.
Selv om vi som sagt ikke er på samme niveuaer som i 2008, så nåede kursen på Firstfarms den gang op i svimlende niveau omkring de 195 med en fordoblign over et års tid.
Black Eart Farming i Sverige er til sammenligning steget små 50 pct den seneste måneds tid.
Kursen nu er nær ATL.
Selskabet leverede overskud i 2011 og det ser ud til deres turnaround er lykkedes.
Jeg har selv 500 stk.
Hvad siger Kristensen?
WRAPUP 2-US grain prices seen easing, tempering food inflation
Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:29pm GMT
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Reuters poll sees grain prices retreating * Easing prices could temper gains in food costs * Still, grain prices seen historically high end-2012 * Will 2012 be similar to 2008 food crisis? * futures prices retreat amid rains, equities decline (Adds links to graphics) By K.T. Arasu CHICAGO, July 23 (Reuters) - High-flying U.S. grains prices could sink asmuch as 19 percent by the year-end from their drought-fueled peaks, a Reuterspoll showed, a decline that should temper expected inflation for a variety offoods ranging from meats to cereals to cooking oil. The poll of nine analysts showed that prices for grains will keep climbingover the next two months to fresh highs, then taper off after the U.S. harvest,and as traders turn their attention to crops in the Southern Hemisphere andpreparations to plant anew in the United States for harvest in 2013. Prices at the year-end, however, will remain historically high, with ChicagoBoard of Trade spot corn futures seen at $6.91 per bushel, the loftiestever for that time. But they will be off 17 percent from their current all-timehigh of $8.28-3/4 set on July 20. The poll showed that corn futures are seenpeaking at $8.87 in early August. Investment bank Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its forecast for corn pricesto soar to a record $9 per bushel in three months, and for soybeans to hit $20after cutting the Yield estimates for both crops. It pegged wheat at $9.80. "The importance of the current U.S. drought for the global crop outlooks ismagnified by detrimental weather conditions in other key world production andexporting nations in 2012," Goldman said. On Monday, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat prices tumbled due to forecasts forrain in some of the parched areas of the northern U.S. Midwest and as concernsover Europe's debt crisis sparked a selloff in equities and other commodities. The Reuters poll showed that CBOT soybean futures were seen ending2012 at $15.40 per bushel, the highest ever for that time of year but off 13percent from their record of $17.77-3/4. It showed the price peaking at $18.04per bushel. Chicago wheat is forecast to end the year at $7.72 per bushel, down19 percent from its peak of $9.52-3/4, the highest in nearly four years. Theanalysts expected the price to peak at $10.01 per bushel in late August. Corn and soybean futures set all-time highs last week as the worst droughtin 56 years withered crops in the world's largest grains exporter, sparkingworry about a food crisis like the one in 2008, when shortages sparked riots in30 countries. Ricky Volpe, research economist at the Economic Research Service of the U.S.Department of Agriculture, said higher food prices this time around will not becomparable to 2008. "None of the dynamics and indicators are approaching that for 2008," hesaid, adding that the food price increases in 2008 were the highest in 20 years. He said major differences include much lower crude oil prices this time, andless-expensive wheat. In 2008, crude oil hit an all-time high above $147 per barrel. A severeshortage of rice in Asia also served as a factor behind the civil unrest thatyear.
RALLY ADDS $30 BILLION TO FOOD COSTS While wheat prices remain well below all-time highs above $13 per bushel setin 2008, they have soared 55 percent in just over a month in tandem with cornand soybeans. Economist Bill Lapp of Advance Economic Solutions in Omaha, Nebraska, saidthe price rally has so far added about $30 billion to food costs that may bepassed on to consumers. "There is a cumulative $30 billion cost bubble due to the rise in prices forcorn, soybeans, soymeal and others," said Lapp, whose clients include foodcompanies and restaurants. Analysts said that while some of the higher food prices will come later thisyear, the bulk of the gains could arrive in 2013 as it usually takes severalmonths for food companies to run down their inventories before restocking. Some companies might have been caught flat-footed by the surge in grains,the analysts said. Just a month ago, the United States was seen heading forbumper crops after one of the mildest winters provided perfect plantingconditions. As the United States is the largest exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat,food inflation could also be exported to importing countries, especially inAsia. The U.S. drought has been more critical for soybeans, which are used to feedlivestock, produce biodiesel, make cooking oil and in some countries such asIndonesia eaten as a protein-rich snack, because a water shortage in leadinggrowers Brazil and Argentina slashed global production. The two South American countries -- the second- and third-largest soybeanexporters -- will plant their next crop this fall and begin exporting early nextyear. Some analysts, however, expect any food crisis this time to be worse than in2008, when riots helped spark the "Arab Spring" that toppled the leaders ofTunisia, Libya and Egypt last year. "It could be more severe than in 2008," said Dennis Gartman, a commoditiestrader and editor/publisher of The Gartman Letter. He said cereal makers were likely to raise prices even though "the cardboardbox containing the cereals is far more expensive than the grain." Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist and grain expert at the U.N.'s Foodand Agriculture Organization, told Reuters in Milan that while rising grainprices were a cause for concern, it was too early to call the situation a foodcrisis. (Additional reporting by Sam Nelson and Mark Weinraub; Editing by DavidGregorio and Dale Hudson)
