Shipping — Marts 2020
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Cleaves rapport: "LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates are holding up well, but the rout in energy prices amidst our negative demand growth forecast for 2021E is not supportive to share prices, down 26% w/w. Still, we think shares are cheap at EV/EBITDA of 3.3x & 27% dividend yield in 2020E"
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Oil Tankers: It is all about the OPEC+ failure over the weekend, and the subsequent 30% rout in the crude oil prices at the time of writing. Increased supply of oil could have positive near-term impact on tanker earnings from transportation and storage economics, but negative medium-term implications as lower energy prices leads to less E&P in the US which a very tonne-mile intensive trade. There is strong correlation (R²=0.93) between the WTI and US rig count with a 16-week lag". -
Læs rapporten her: https://www.cleaves.no/post/shipping-weekly-10-2020
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What crude price collapse means to ocean shipping: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-crude-price-collapse-means-to-ocean-shipping
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"The current contango structure is said to suggest oil firms would be willing to pay $30,000 per day for VLCC floating storage that lasts 60 to 90 days — but shipowners are expecting further gains."https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/oil-price-war-boosts-tanker-rates-and-share-prices/2-1-769985
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"The rout has raised the prospect of traders keeping oil at sea for later sale at a profit. In the height of the 2008-09 recession, oil companies, traders and financial institutions kept more than 100 million barrels on tankers, some betting on a rebound, others simply locking in a contango, where month-on-month price oil-price gaps far exceeded the cost of hiring vessels".https://gcaptain.com/wanted-tankers-to-store-oil-as-price-war-augurs-glut/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_sourc
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Det har jeg ikke rigtigt taget stilling til. Det er en så lille andel af mine porteføljer, at jeg har pæn tålmodighed. Skæringspunktet på Asiens forsatte efterspørgelse efter propan fra US er jeg ikke helt sikker på. Det får vi nok mere at vide om i den kommende tid.
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Ritzau: Oliepriskrigen mellem Saudi-Arabien og Rusland kan blive altødelæggende for den amerikanske skiferolieindustri.
Det skriver avisen Wall Street Journal.
Den amerikanske skiferindustri står til at blive den største taber i oliepriskrigen mellem Rusland og Saudi-Arabien, der har sendt oliepriserne ned i et rekordlavt niveau.
Allerede forud for mandagens prisfald på 25 pct. stod det ringe til hos gældsramte amerikanske selskaber som Chesapeake Energy og Whiting Petroleum.
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