Genmab — Maj 2021

[Bulder]

Novod på banen igen. Han anslår amivantamab peaksale $ 1,1 mia i den oprindelige indikation, som er meget lille. Winkel talte i går om at udvide indikationen til at omfatte 20% af al lungecancer. Hvis vi siger 10% til genmab, så kan man selv regne lidt på det.

[Bulder]

Winkel i går: But if actually that larger population would read out positively then the income profile is quite substantial.

[E_L]

what does Novod mean with the 'den oprindelige indikation'; does he mean only that smaller EGFR Exon 20 mutations population?

[E_L]

i see he also lifts peak Dara sales to $12.5bn from $10bn

[Bulder]

Yes, as Winkel also said: As we both know, the initial population in lung cancer is quite small. It's a subset of patients and a very small subset. I assume he's talking about exon20

[E_L]

ok, thanks. I wasn't sure that part on it's own was gonna be valued that much already by the analysts, so good to see
.

[E_L]

I have had high expectations for a long time for this. Jan seemed to think a summer approval is a possibility. Would be a nice holiday-news item.

[E_L]

On HexaCD38, there has always been some doubt in the back of my mind whether JNJ can really hold off their opt-in if results are really really good.

[E_L]

Suppose there is a clear and demonstrably large outperformance by HexaCD38 over Dara but JNJ has still not pulled the trigger; what will the market say? Patients and doctors? Can you deny them a drug that is really much better?

[Sukkeralf]

As NSCLC is such a big indikation - you could as always hope for some off label sales if we get an approval mid year

[Sukkeralf]

E L I think they can´t do that - i would guess the rights fall back to Genmab and that is written in the contract. Kind of mismanagement from Janssen

[Sukkeralf]

But that could be a good quenstion for Jan at the next Q&A

[E_L]

i hadn't even though about that- off label sales, good point

[E_L]

pls do ask! i have been wondering if this could be the case!

[Bulder]

If superdara is substantially better than dara it is out of the question, that jnj would NOT opt in. That would the scandal of the century.

[E_L]

Horizon earnings call on tepezza
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/05/05/horizon-therapeutics-plc-hznp-q1-2021-earnings-cal/

[E_L]

we spoke of orphan designation on amivantamab; this is how important Horizon thinks it is for tepezza: 'Within Europe we continue to look for avenues to attain orphan drug designation that would be what's required to move to the next step. So until we're able to obtain orphan drug designation we won't be moving forward in Europe.'

[troldmanden]

Det står direkte i hexa38 kontakten at hvis JnJ IKKE opter ind, så falder rettighederne tilbage til genmab. MEN stoffet må ikke markedsføres i indikationer som dara er godkendt i, virker. Kun dara resistente patienter og indikationer dara ikke er godkendt i. Og så fjernes en meget stor del af værdien. Så det er den klemme JnJ har over genmab

[nohope]

Det skal være offentligheden der skal redde os. JnJ kan forhåbentligvis ikke holde til at de fremstår som om de vha jura holder Super-Dara væk fra markedet for at beskytte deres indtjening på Dara.

[E_L]

@troldmanden i have also read the press release, but i still think my question is valid