Genmab — Marts 2021
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"Vi vælger dog for nuværende at afvente data, før vi finder det relevant at justere vores værdiansættelsesmodel. I mellemtiden vælger vi at fratrække en midlertidig arbitrær kursmålsrabat på 100 DKK, som relaterer sig til de højere omkostninger og den negative indflydelse, det for nuværende har på aktiekursen.
Endelig vælger vi også at fratrække 100 DKK yderligere fra vores kursmål som en refleksion af, at voldgiftssagen trækker ud, alt imens Genmab allerede nu realiserer et royalty-tab".
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ungee...Artiklen er låst. Jeg har skrevet til ØU om at åbne den. Vores aftale er, at "Langers Skarpe" hver lørdag er åben for vore brugere.
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"Langers Skarpe" er åben nu. https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/672839/langers-skarpe-her-er-forklaringen-pa-ugens-blodbad-i-danske-aktier
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Mygind notes that higher/ faster investments mean some extra risk. I had not realised people would think that way? I would argue that Genmab decides how to proceed after each development phase with each additional data point they get. To get to that data point they need to do an investment, the size of which will not depend much on the speed they get there.
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To me it is clear that, IF there is an adverse event in one of the projects, they will stop the development and therefore not use the full budget for that project. Whether you get there slow or fast. They recently showed their discipline in cutting development in Enapotamab and, in a sense, also with Camidanlumab.
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Genmab could have also chosen to guide initially with lower costs and increase guidance after each successfully finished development phase. As is said before, to me, budgetting the fast development already now, shows conviction that they think that their projects will be successful.
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Det flugter også præcis med hvad jeg skrev tidligere. Jo mere aggrasivt man investere, jo mere risiko løber man. Hvis man fulgte den mere "normale" udvikling så vil man udvikle mod 1 fase 3 først samtidigt med der laves endnu flere PK studier. Og når man så har fase 3 data og de er gode så skruere man meget mere op. Derved er risikoen lavere. Modsat tager det længere tid at få et ligende antal godkendelser såfremt data er positive
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Så det er et kalkuleret satsning Abbvie og genmab fortager. Fejler det bliver det mega max dyrt at fejle fordi de kommer til at køre så mange parellle fase 3 forsøg
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Genmab Investor Presentation - March 2021
https://ir.genmab.com/static-files/de962be4-2ada-4f94-b566-080b5ed340eb -
POLITICO @politico
BREAKING: The Senate passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package after a marathon session and last-minute arm twisting over one of the biggest provisions in the package https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/06/senate-approves-bidens-19t-pandemic-relief-plan-473920 …
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