Genmab — April 2020
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overvægt eller køb vil jeg mene
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ja godt forslag
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Hold da op, jeg er desværre ude af GMAB lige for tiden. Men i dag er der indledt dækning fra Credit Suisse
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We initiate coverage of Genmab with an Outperform rating (TP DKK1,950). Genmab is a Danish Biopharma founded on a novel antibody platform. Success has been built on partnerships with Novartis (on Arzerra) and JNJ (on Darzalex), providing Genmab with cash and validation to expand its antibody discovery strategy. The investment thesis has moved beyond Darzalex, for which we think forecasts are well reflected (CSe USD 10bn peak; c17% royalty). Focus now switches to the pipeline as it prepares to be
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as it prepares to become a commercial Biopharma company.
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Valuation underpinned by Darzalex. There remains uncertainty surrounding coronavirus and its impact on Pharma. However, we believe Genmab is better placed than most peers, given an innovation platform and strong predictable cash flows from its anti-cancer drug, Darzalex. Our NPV is underpinned by Darzalex (DKK1,400, c.90% of current share price).
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Ofatumumab sales underappreciated. We believe the next near-term sales opportunity will come from the mid-2020 launch of ofatumumab (partnered with Novartis), the second CD20 launch in multiple sclerosis. Genmab receives a 10% flat royalty on sales. We think investors are too focused on competition from the established Ocrevus (Roche) and are overlooking growth of the CD20 MS market. We forecast 2025 sales for ofatumumab of USD 4.5bn (90% PoS), more than double consensus’ USD 1.8bn.
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Multiple pipeline updates should drive potential upgrades. Genmab has been reinvesting its Darzalex income to leverage its own R&D platform to generate unpartnered assets. Pipeline momentum is building. In 2Q we should see P2 data for tisotumumab vedotin (TV) in cervical cancer, potentially its first commercial asset. The duobody-CD3xCD20 for B-cell malignancies is its most anticipated launch, and Genmab expects a potential partnership in 2H20. Our net present value (NPV) of its unpartnered prod
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Our net present value (NPV) of its unpartnered products is DKK35/share, with partnerships potentially unlocking more value.
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Catalysts: (1) 1Q20 results May 6; (2) TV P2 cervical data in 2Q20; and (3) SC Darzalex approval by mid-2020.
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Risks include pipeline failures and COVID-19 hindering sales.
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Valuation: As a development Biopharma, we view PharmaValues NPV as the best methodology to capture the value of the pipeline. Genmab trades on an EV/NPV of 0.75x, a 28% discount to its EU Specialty peers. CS HOLT
’s warranted price is DKK1,727/share. -
Target fra CS: 1950. Blue sky 2450
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sorry 2460
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