Genmab — Februar 2019
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Fra Davids svar til James Patrick Quigley (JP Morgan) på hans sprøgsmål om guidance/point estimates:
"A lot of the royalties come into Q4 for 2 reasons. One, we've got rising sales numbers quarter-by-quarter as we go throughout the year. But remember, we've got the tranches of royalties that come through. So in Q1, you're going to be starting off again but your royalty income is going to be at the 12% and 13% rising to the 16% and then going through for the last tranche in the fourth quarter the -
then. When we get to that point, you'll be at the 18%."
Så nu kender vi alle royalty-%erne (12, 13, 16, 18, 20) - det eneste vi ikke ved er præcis hvornår 18%-trinnet sætter ind. Men da de andre trin har været fuldstændigt regelmæssige, må man antage at det sidste trin følger samme mønster, altså: -
Og der har været sagt adskillige ting herinde om de 2 salgsmilestones, nogle ukorrekte. Det står i outlook, at de forventer ialt 1500 mioDKK (ialt, ved 2,5- og 3-milestones), og David sagde senere i samme svar: "..particularly the $3 billion-related milestone, $150 million, DKK 900 million".
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Fra Børsen - citat: Med den nuværende behandlingstid kan man behandle omkring to patienter om dagen per stol, men det vil ændre sig til fire per time inklusive en kop kaffe med den subkutane version. Og det vil, tror jeg, dramatisk booste brugen af Darzalex
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Uanset, så hvade David en exellent pointe: "..and I think we saw in 2018, we didn't have any movement of our guidance overall. And of course, look, I've been very transparent with the milestones that are in there. They're binary. And look, for the long-term trajectory, our DARZALEX sales, whether they're 2.99 billion in 2019 or 3.01 billion in 2019 makes absolutely no difference of where the future success of DARZALEX will be.."!
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