Genmab — April 2017
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I kommende uge kysser vi forhåbentlig 1400 igen
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Thanks for your reactions, indeed good to have some discussion on a Sunday
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Couple thoughts.
To be clear, 4000DKK in 2030 is not my price target.
I believe Genmab will not see 2030 on its own.
However, hypothetically, let’s say there’s no take-over, I believe the stock price will hit 10.000 DKK before 2025 (based on Dara + quality of the pipeline and Tech). -
My point regarding the 4000 DKK is in the context of the analyst projections.
I’m only saying that the peak sales calculations of the analysists are way too conservative (low 1st line penetration and short Dara treatment horizons) and peak sales is what it is all about! -
Therefore I’m arguing the point that the full MM business is currently reflected in the stock price, I believe it is clearly not and the stock price will keep moving on positive MM news (for example: Pollux PFS updates, ORR / hazard ration in Alcyone study and faster than expected sales growth).
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Therefore if the correct peak sales (15bn – 20bn) would already been verified by the analysts DCF models, they would show a much higher price target.
It is simple math, we know the Pollux PFS is 50+ months, so why are they calculating with only half of this in their DCF models? -
The current price targets should be way way higher.
We’ll get there, only it’s going to take more time. -
If you’re not sure if this is right I suggest you take an analyst report that has a full P&L up to 2025 (Citi Bank, Kempen, Nordea) and look how the peak sales of Dara is build up, you’ll see that their assumptions are way way to conservative.
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@Bikube, regarding the Carina trial.
I get your view on the current sell-off, however I believe this in no case reflects a normal market reaction and this will not be how the market on average will react in the future if certain studies with the little magnitude like the Carina study fail. What happened in the rollercoaster from 1413 till 1220 just doesn’t make any sense. I think some part of it was manipulated and we’ll see 1400 within a couple of weeks. -
haha!
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God morgen.
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Tak for link Bud.
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