Genmab — April 2017
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@GlobalMacro great read! -
Rolig nu - Vi har lige haft et fald på 15% fordi et forsøg blev droppet. Når vi har 40 forsøg kørende, er der vel ikke ret mange, der ikke kan se muligheden for, at det gentager sig. Selv om det er andre, der laver combiforsøg med Dara, vil det svie,hver gang det ikke lykkes. Kommer der flere tæt efter hinanden, ryger vi langt ned. Bare for lige at holde os ved jorden.
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Enig bikube.
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I would surely also be happy with 4000 in mm in 2030. But there are 12 month targets of 1700now so I'm thinking that Jeffries that have target now at 1700 probably will have higher targets that 4000 kr in 2030. 13 years down the line is highly speculation. For me it's more interesting to know the fair price of genmab in the next 1 to 2 years. A lot of things can happen in 13 years and it's in my view impossible to predict 13 years ahead.
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I kommende uge kysser vi forhåbentlig 1400 igen
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Thanks for your reactions, indeed good to have some discussion on a Sunday
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Couple thoughts.
To be clear, 4000DKK in 2030 is not my price target.
I believe Genmab will not see 2030 on its own.
However, hypothetically, let’s say there’s no take-over, I believe the stock price will hit 10.000 DKK before 2025 (based on Dara + quality of the pipeline and Tech). -
My point regarding the 4000 DKK is in the context of the analyst projections.
I’m only saying that the peak sales calculations of the analysists are way too conservative (low 1st line penetration and short Dara treatment horizons) and peak sales is what it is all about! -
Therefore I’m arguing the point that the full MM business is currently reflected in the stock price, I believe it is clearly not and the stock price will keep moving on positive MM news (for example: Pollux PFS updates, ORR / hazard ration in Alcyone study and faster than expected sales growth).
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Therefore if the correct peak sales (15bn – 20bn) would already been verified by the analysts DCF models, they would show a much higher price target.
It is simple math, we know the Pollux PFS is 50+ months, so why are they calculating with only half of this in their DCF models? -
The current price targets should be way way higher.
We’ll get there, only it’s going to take more time. -
If you’re not sure if this is right I suggest you take an analyst report that has a full P&L up to 2025 (Citi Bank, Kempen, Nordea) and look how the peak sales of Dara is build up, you’ll see that their assumptions are way way to conservative.
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@Bikube, regarding the Carina trial.
I get your view on the current sell-off, however I believe this in no case reflects a normal market reaction and this will not be how the market on average will react in the future if certain studies with the little magnitude like the Carina study fail. What happened in the rollercoaster from 1413 till 1220 just doesn’t make any sense. I think some part of it was manipulated and we’ll see 1400 within a couple of weeks.
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