Genmab — April 2016
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Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mara Goldstein forecast Revlimid sales reaching $10 billion by 2020 if its duration of use and geographic expansion continues to grow, along with approvals or new uses.
"It's a high class problem to have," she said of the company's dependence on Revlimid. She predicts Revlimid will decline as a percentage of profit "not because it's declining, but because other products are growing. That's a very positive dynamic."
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Celgene said it anticipates "significant market share gains over coming months and years" with reimbursements for newly diagnosed patients in Europe, and with an expected approval in Japan for such patients around the end of the year. The company is also conducting five late-stage trials of Revlimid in a variety of lymphomas.
"It's always less risky to expand the opportunities for an existing drug than to invest in advancing a new drug," Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges said. "They happen to
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Man må gå ud fra de regner med at veksten kommer når Pollux er godkendt
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Men hvis Revlimid skal sælge for USD 10 milliarder i 2020, så er peak sales estimat for Darzalex på USD 7 milliarder vel alt alt for lavt
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Fra SEB i dag: Previously Celgene predicted USD 7bn in
2017 Revlimid revenue: this is now predicted to be USD 8bn. Considering that we
expect Genmab’s Darzalex to be an obvious combination therapy to use for MM
patients together with Revlimid, we are very encouraged by the high growth for the
current market leader. -
Videre fra SEB: We recently highlighted that the International Myeloma Foundation is estimating a
significant increase in the number of MM patients as novel treatments improve
survival and therefore change the dynamics in the market. It was estimated that the
patient base could increase as much as 50% due to better survival, and today’s
strong growth in Revlimid is also being highlighted by Celgene to be derived from
increased duration of treatment. -
Og til sidst: We continue to like the Genmab investment case and we consider the rapidly
growing market as an incremental positive compared with our current assumptions.
It is vital that Genmab secures a positive outcome of the POLLUX trial (Darzalex
combined with Revlimid in relapsed/refractory MM patients), but we have no reason
to doubt this as previous trials in this setup all have been very positive. -
nice - jeg har SEB target på 1250 fra 08042016. De justerer ikke på det i samme åndedrag?
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nej SEB beholder target 1250
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tak
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Ved valg af behandlingskombination er der i USA 3 parter: Læge, forsikringsselskab og patient. Selvfølgelig spiller responsdybden en stor rolle. Men det gør prisen også. Ikke mindst for forsikringsselskaberne. Så det er ikke utænkeligt at i visse tilfælde vil det ene stof blive fravalgt pga prisen.
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Hold nu kæft for et luk i US.
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Troede egentlig, at vi var all set til et forsøg på Ath i morgen og måske endda 1000 - men så kom den sidste time...
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