Genmab — Juli 2014
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Genmab (Buy, PT DKr274): Transformation underway – reinstate with Buy. Transformation underway - Buy, PO DKK274, 30% upside: We reinstate coverage of Genmab, a DKK12.4bn market cap, Copenhagen-based biotech company, with a Buy rating and DCF-derived PO of DKK274 (c30% upside). We believe the company is entering a new phase with its exciting lead asset daratumumab (multiple myeloma) and strong technology platform, more than offsetting our caution on its only marketed asset Arzzera (anti-CD-20,
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oncology). We see a 'blue sky' valuation of DKK570 (170% upside) based on full pipeline success and increased investor confidence in the technology platform. Daratumumab transformational & key to growth: 70% NPV: Daratumumab is an anti-CD38 in Ph III development for multiple myeloma (MM) and granted FDA breakthrough therapy. We believe it will be the first CD-38 to market from early-16. With its compelling efficacy and benign safety profile, we expect it to be used as an add-on to the current
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treatment paradigm (MM note here). We model a MM biologics market of $7.5bn by 2023, with $3bn for daratumumab. We expect significant newsflow 2H14, notably ASH in Dec to be a key driver of share price. Strong technology platform supports pipeline growth: Genmab has a number of active partnerships
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through its technology platforms, with most excitement around Duobody (bispecific antibodies) and Hexabody (antibodies with enhanced killing ability). We value the technology platform and partnered assets at DKK37/sh (14%) and believe the announcement of further partnerships should increase investor
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confidence in Genmab's revenue-generating potential. Cautious on Arzerra, struggling to compete: We are cautious on Arzerra (anti-CD-20) given increasing competition to both approved (chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) and pipeline indications from Roche's anti-CD20 Gazyva and newer oral therapies driving peak risk-adjusted forecasts of $125m in oncology, significantly below cons. modelled $1.1bn. However, we also
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http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=6ZQW8UPX8dIlmGSxo0xLDA__&e=vgupta33%40irevna2.com&h=1Qqthg This material was prepared by Sales personnel of Bank of America Merrill Lynch and is subject to the terms available at the following link: http://corp.bankofamerica.com/business/smb/landing/emaildisclaimer/emea/emea-gmi-disclaimer
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Deres blue sky er højt. Men husk nu der er en grund til det hedder blue sky = at alt går op i en højere enhed. Og det gør det sjældent i biotek
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nej nohype. Når de taler om bluesky er det jo stadig risikojusteret tilbagediskonteret nutidsværdier.
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Mit kursmål er 1000 i 2020 og vil ikke kalde det blueskye. Men det skal jo så tilbagediskonteres med eksempelvis 15% i 6 år hvilket vil gøre at mit kursmål pt. vil være ca. 400
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Men ligner amerikanerne gør lidt. Over 220 nu. men håber du forstod mit indlæg nohype? at ens langsigtede kursmål 6-7 år ude i fremtiden selvfølgelig skal tilbagediskonteres hvorimod at MLI's nuværende 570 blue sky allerede er tilbagediskonteret
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en WACC på 15% vil jeg bruge når jeg tilbagediskonterer biotek ifht. den store risiko det jo har. Novod og Bowers ligger også på en 11-12% i WACC så vidt jeg husker
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btw har jeg en rigtig god ide pt. ala bakka og protector. En fantastisk billig, valueaktie. Skal fortælle dig om den om en måneds tid. Skal lige se deres halvårsregnskab og have bekræftet om de leverer det jeg tror og håber
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