Genmab — Juli 2014
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Genmab (Buy, PT DKr274): Transformation underway – reinstate with Buy. Transformation underway - Buy, PO DKK274, 30% upside: We reinstate coverage of Genmab, a DKK12.4bn market cap, Copenhagen-based biotech company, with a Buy rating and DCF-derived PO of DKK274 (c30% upside). We believe the company is entering a new phase with its exciting lead asset daratumumab (multiple myeloma) and strong technology platform, more than offsetting our caution on its only marketed asset Arzzera (anti-CD-20,
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oncology). We see a 'blue sky' valuation of DKK570 (170% upside) based on full pipeline success and increased investor confidence in the technology platform. Daratumumab transformational & key to growth: 70% NPV: Daratumumab is an anti-CD38 in Ph III development for multiple myeloma (MM) and granted FDA breakthrough therapy. We believe it will be the first CD-38 to market from early-16. With its compelling efficacy and benign safety profile, we expect it to be used as an add-on to the current
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treatment paradigm (MM note here). We model a MM biologics market of $7.5bn by 2023, with $3bn for daratumumab. We expect significant newsflow 2H14, notably ASH in Dec to be a key driver of share price. Strong technology platform supports pipeline growth: Genmab has a number of active partnerships
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through its technology platforms, with most excitement around Duobody (bispecific antibodies) and Hexabody (antibodies with enhanced killing ability). We value the technology platform and partnered assets at DKK37/sh (14%) and believe the announcement of further partnerships should increase investor
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confidence in Genmab's revenue-generating potential. Cautious on Arzerra, struggling to compete: We are cautious on Arzerra (anti-CD-20) given increasing competition to both approved (chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) and pipeline indications from Roche's anti-CD20 Gazyva and newer oral therapies driving peak risk-adjusted forecasts of $125m in oncology, significantly below cons. modelled $1.1bn. However, we also
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http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=6ZQW8UPX8dIlmGSxo0xLDA__&e=vgupta33%40irevna2.com&h=1Qqthg This material was prepared by Sales personnel of Bank of America Merrill Lynch and is subject to the terms available at the following link: http://corp.bankofamerica.com/business/smb/landing/emaildisclaimer/emea/emea-gmi-disclaimer
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Deres blue sky er højt. Men husk nu der er en grund til det hedder blue sky = at alt går op i en højere enhed. Og det gør det sjældent i biotek
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nej nohype. Når de taler om bluesky er det jo stadig risikojusteret tilbagediskonteret nutidsværdier.
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Mit kursmål er 1000 i 2020 og vil ikke kalde det blueskye. Men det skal jo så tilbagediskonteres med eksempelvis 15% i 6 år hvilket vil gøre at mit kursmål pt. vil være ca. 400
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