Regionalbankerne i USA igen igen

[tommycarstensen]

Jeg har set nogle paa forum, der har overvejet at investere i $PACW og $WAL. Jeg tror de to banker overlever, men jeg ville ikke selv investere i dem. Jeg valgte i stedet at investere i $USB og $FITB i den forgangne uge, hvor jeg tror en eventuel kortsigtet kursgevinst er mindre end i $PACW og $WAL.

Til sidst i denne video forklarer Jared Shaw fra Wells Fargo, hvorfor det maaske er en fordel at koebe preferred shares, hvis man virkelig gerne vil investere i stormens oeje:
2022-04-25 First Republic Bank's deposit outflows were worse than expected, says Wells Fargo's Jared Shaw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z2MxFMHx2w

I oevrigt gav Warren Buffett 12. april endelig svar paa, hvorfor han bortset fra $BAC har solgt ud af bankerne i Berkshires portefoelje; bl.a. $USB:
2023-04-12 Warren Buffett on banking crisis fallout and why he sold most of his bank stocks except one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP1ZaOd4Dtw

I oevrigt har $FCNCA og $NYCB klaret sig ganske udmaerket hvad angaar kortsigtet kursudvikling siden marts, efter de overtog resterne af $SIVB og $SBNY. Se vedhaeftede figur. Den enes doed, den andens broed.

Jeg har tidligere skrevet en traad om $SIVB her:
https://proinvestor.com/boards/111542/

Og jeg kiggede paa bankernes tab paa HTM securities ift kontantbeholdninger her:
https://proinvestor.com/boards/111816/

Jeg har uddybet paa min blog, hvorfor jeg tror $PACW of $WAL overlever:
https://blog.midgardfinance.com/2023/05/06/will-regional-banks-survive-and-thrive-after-the-2023-banking-crisis/
Will regional banks survive and thrive after the 2023 banking crisis?

Held og lykke til alle med at traeffe svaere beslutninger i et volatilt marked. Hvis de ikke loeser problemet med gaeldsloftet i USA, saa er vinteren paa vej i en ellers solrig maj maaned, og saa gaar rigtig mange banker sikkert fallit.

[tommycarstensen]

I øvrigt snakkede Buffett og Munger lidt om banker i går:
2023-05-06 Warren Buffett: We don't know where the shareholders of banks are heading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgRFEwjAS9s

[tommycarstensen]

Regional bank rebound stalls on Monday as PacWest gives back much of its early trading gains
https://www.cnbc.com/id/107237325

[tommycarstensen]

Jamie Dimon Says US Needs to 'Finish' the Bank Crisis https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-11/jamie-dimon-warns-regulators-to-not-overreact-to-bank-crisis

[tommycarstensen]

PacWest shares tumble 20% after regional bank says deposits fell 9.5% last week

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/pacwest-shares-tumble-20percent-after-regional-bank-says-deposits-fell-9point5percent-last-week.html

10Q frigivet i dag:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1102112/000162828023017382/0001628280-23-017382-index.htm

[tommycarstensen]

$PACW fra ovenstaaende 10Q:

Impact of First Republic Bank Closure and Sale
On May 1, 2023, First Republic Bank was closed by regulators and immediately sold to J.P. Morgan Chase. This event heightened market and customer fears of additional bank failures, including PacWest. Our stock price declined approximately 41% from $10.15 on April 28, 2023, to $5.96 on May 5, 2023. On the afternoon of May 3, 2023, PacWest was featured prominently in the financial news headlines with reports that PacWest was "exploring all of its options and having talks with potential investors and partners". The news headlines increased our customers fears of the safety of their deposits. During the week ended May 5, 2023, our deposits declined approximately 9.5%, with a majority of that decline occurring on May 4th and May 5th after the news reports on the afternoon of May 3rd. PacWest funded this decline in deposits with available on-balance sheet liquidity. As of May 10, 2023, immediately-available liquidity (on-balance sheet liquidity and unused borrowing capacity) was $15.0 billion, which exceeded uninsured deposits of $5.2 billion, representing a coverage ratio of 288%.
These recent events, and the ongoing news coverage of these events, has increased certain risks and uncertainties related to our business and future prospects. See also the updated "Risk Factors" section disclosed in Part II, Item 1A of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

[tommycarstensen]

Jeg har vedhaeftet, hvad jeg synes er de vigtigste figurer for $PACW fra deres 10Q fra i dag for foerste kvartal. Jeg haelder stadig mest til, at PacWest overlever. De har forresten fremadrettet reduceret det kvartalsvise udbytte fra 25 cent til 1 cent. Det fremgaar ikke af nogen af figurerne.

[tommycarstensen]

$PACW har tilfoejet foelgende til deres risk factors paa side 93 i seneste 10Q:

We are subject to liquidity risk, including changes in the levels and sources of liquidity as highlighted by the recent events in the banking industry, which have adversely affected, and could continue to adversely affect, our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Problems encountered by, or adverse news concerning, other financial institutions has adversely affected financial and capital markets generally as well as the Bank, and may continue to do so.

We recently reduced our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.01 per share, and there can be no assurance regarding when or if we will increase our common stock dividend to prior levels.

A further reduction in our credit ratings could adversely affect our access to capital and could increase our cost of funds.

[tommycarstensen]

BofA reinstates Western Alliance at Buy on strong business model, stock gains 6%
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3972134-bofa-reinstates-western-alliance-at-buy-on-strong-business-model-stock-gains-6

[tommycarstensen]

Troubled regional lender PacWest sells $2.6 billion loans at discount
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/pacwest-bancorp-sell-real-estate-loans-kennedy-wilson-subsidiary-2023-05-22/

Kursen er steget lige knap 20% indtil videre i dag. På kort sigt er det godt. Men på lang sigt har de færre aktiver. Jeg er ikke sikker på, at det var et nødvendigt frasalg.