Novo Nordisk 2022Q1
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Hvor er det et vildt regnskab fra Novo Nordisk! Jeg glaeder mig til at laese regnskabet i loebet af weekenden. Bemaerk, at der p.t. for Saxenda
er en lillebitte fejl i grafen, fordi Novo tidligere blandede salg for Saxenda og Wegovy sammen i en paere-vaelling. Men Saxenda salg oeges fra DKKm 1551 til 1998 (+6%) til trods for lancering af Wegovy (DKKm 1404).Novo Nordisk's sales increased by 24% in Danish kroner and by 18% at constant exchange rates to DKK 42.0 billion in the first three months of 2022
https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=112994Operating profit increased by 28% in Danish kroner and by 18% at constant exchange rates (CER) to DKK 19.1 billion.
Sales in International Operations increased by 18% in Danish kroner (13% at CER), and sales in North America Operations increased by 33% in Danish kroner (24% at CER).
Sales within Diabetes and Obesity care increased by 27% in Danish kroner to DKK 36.7 billion (20% at CER), mainly driven by GLP-1 diabetes sales growth of 54% in Danish kroner (45% at CER). Rare disease sales increased by 8% measured in Danish kroner (3% at CER).
Obesity care sales grew 119% in Danish Kroner (107% at CER) driven by Wegovy
sales of DKK 1.4 billion. The contract manufacturer filling syringes for Wegovy has reinitiated commercial production and Novo Nordisk expects to make all Wegovy dose strengths available in the US during the second half of 2022.Within R&D, Novo Nordisk in April 2022 successfully completed the first phase 3a trial with insulin icodec, a long-acting once-weekly insulin. In February 2022, the phase 3 trial with concizumab in people with haemophilia A and B with inhibitors was successfully completed.
For the 2022 outlook, sales growth is now expected to be 10-14% at CER and operating profit growth is now expected to be 9-13% at CER. Sales and operating profit growth reported in Danish kroner are now expected to be 7 and 11 percentage points higher than at CER, respectively. The ongoing share repurchase programme is expanded by DKK 2 billion to DKK 24 billion
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Enig Tommy. Det er virkeligt et vildt regnskab.
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Novo Nordisk shares rose 6% after a surprise early report showing much better than expected first-quarter earnings and a big boost to full-year guidance.
Outlook FY revenue growth 10-14%, up from 6-10% previously, while Outlook FY EBIT growth 9-13%, up from 4-8% previously
• Q1 sales DKK 42,031 million vs. estimate DKK 38,575 million, with Wegovy at DKK 1.4 billion despite supply issues
• We did not expect a guidance raise already in the first quarter, analysts at Carnegie said
• The guidance raise and the magnitude send a strong signal this early in the year: Carnegie -
Saxenda +29% skulle der have stået og ikke +6%.
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Vækst var ventet, men alligevel vildt. Den stærke dollar hjælper til, når væksten opgøres i danske kroner. Ved uændret valuta er væksten alligevel 18 procent.
Og så har Wegovy knap nok lagt fra land endnu. Det der virkelig trækker op er væksten i GLP1 på 54 procent, virkelig overraskende. Havde selv regnet med højst 40 procent på segmentet.
Markedet reager dog behersket, vil jeg sige.
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DjengisCash Jeg tror den beherskede reaktion trods den flotte vaekst og det flotte regnskab skal ses i lyset af de meget hoeje multipler.
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Tommy, ja den er dyrt prissat på multipler og en pæn del af væksten har nok været indregnet allerede. I næste uge kommer der sikkert en række justeringer af kursmål, der driver prisen yderligere mod nord.
Apropros prissætning, så skrev jeg vist for nyligt, at Mærsk skulle koste 256.000 kr., hvis prissætningen skulle matche Novo på P/E.
God weekend
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Er de kommet efter regnskabet i dag? Det syntes jeg ikke at have set.
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Den synes allerede dyr, men det er der vel en grund til. Nu har jeg ikke nærlæst den, men denne her er fra 29-April-2022:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505430-novo-nordisk-stock-overvalued-pharma-should-be-rotated
Det ændret nok ikke på at danskerne ikke kan få armene ned.
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"Ingen over og ingen ved siden af Novo Nordisk", som Per Hansen ville have sagt det
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Netop..Dem fra de seneste uger har vi sendt rundt på Proinvestor. Forstod dit skriv som om det var nye efter regnskabet i går.
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Jeg fik skrevet, at salget af Saxenda
blev oeget til trods for lancering af Wegovy og fik antydet, at Wegovy ikke har kannibaliseret Saxenda.Da jeg skrev det, var "financial workbook" for kvartalet ikke blevet uploadet hertil endnu:
https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/financial-results.htmlDet er ikke i USA, at Saxenda
vokser, hvilket den ene af de to vedhaeftede figurer viser. Den anden figur viser, at Wegovy allerede er stoerre end Saxenda i USA; hhv DKKm 1404 og 704 i foerste kvartal.Klik paa billederne for at goere dem stoerre.
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Denne meddelse fra den største konkurrent skal nok lægge en dæmper på euforien.
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DjengisCash Tusind tak for link. Jeg havde ikke set den endnu.
1) Baade ja og nej; se kommentar fra Fruergaard nedenfor. Victoza
blev heller ikke slaaet til plukfisk af Trulicity i sin tid i det voksende og stadigt voksende GLP1-diabetes-marked.2) Og saa er Tirzepatid ikke et oralt laegemiddel, og Novo har oral semaglutid mod fedme i fase 3, og mon ikke det bliver godkendt ligesom diabetes-pendanten Rybelsus
?3) De 22,5% vaegttab bliver kun opnaaet ved hoejeste dosis paa 15mg.
Men naar alt det er sagt, saa synes jeg ogsaa, at kursen paa Novo er alt for hoej.
Jeg har forresten ikke set artiklen med resultaterne fra fedme-studiet SURMOUNT-1, men vedhaeftet en figur fra diabetes-studiet SURPASS-2 publiceret i NEJM:
Tirzepatide versus Semaglutide Once Weekly in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519Klik paa figurerne for at goere dem stoerre.
2021-11-03
After strong quarter, Novo Nordisk urges more competitive US obesity market
But he said more competition would make more doctors recognise obesity as a disease that can be treated with drugs.
"We would welcome more competitors to actually help establish that market," Jorgensen said.
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Meddelelsen kom torsdag. Kursen faldt efterfølgende.
https://www.proinvestor.com/investornyt/815223/novo-rival-viser-lovende-data-med-wegovy-konkurrent
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