Retail Apocalypse
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Jeg faldt over dette kort:
Macy's is closing nearly 30 stores-here's a map of where they are
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/08/macys-store-closuresheres-where-they-are.htmlNogle af butikkerne har eksisteret i mere end et halvt aarhundrede. Det maa vaere lidt trist for lokalsamfundene.
Jeg synes, at profetierne om #RetailApocalypse er overdrevne. Jeg er selv eksponeret mod mall/outlet REITs via $SPG, $MAC og $SKT. Derudover har jeg aktier i $LB og $HBI. Derfor interesseret Macy's mig. Jeg har lavet en oversigt over ejerne af de centre, hvor Macy's lukker og slukker. Det er de svage/konkurs-truede REIT-spillere saasom $CBL og $WPG, der er mest paavirkede; se listen nedenfor, der ogsaa inkluderer $BPR og $SPG.
En anden, der gaar mod stroemmen hvad angaar den naertstaaende #RetailApocalypse, er Michael Burry. Han har cirka 80% af portefoeljen i $GME, $TLRD, $SPWH og $BBBY.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llcMacy's holiday season sales fall less than feared, to close 29 stores
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holiday-shopping-macy-s/macys-holiday-season-sales-fall-less-than-feared-to-close-29-stores-idUSKBN1Z71T1Victoria Secret's parent stock falls on weak holiday sales and trimmed forecast
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/victoria-secrets-parent-stock-falls-on-weak-holiday-sales.htmlJC Penney says holiday same-store sales fell 7.5%, reaffirms outlook for the year
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/jc-penney-jcp-holiday-same-store-sales-2020.htmlKohl's shares tank on dismal holiday sales results, lowered outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/kohls-shares-tank-on-dismal-holiday-sales-results-lowered-outlook.htmlBed Bath & Beyond shares plunge after earnings miss, company withdraws fiscal 2019 outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/08/bed-bath-beyond-bbby-earnings-q3-2019.html5 Retail Trends to Watch in 2020
https://www.inc.com/anna-meyer/top-retail-trends-2020.html?icid=hmsub2- Prioritizing experiences over shelf space.
- Taking online brands offline in creative ways.
- Giving customers more ways to pay.
- Recession-proofing prices.
- Adopting artificial intelligence in the right way.
UK retail industry suffered worst year on record in 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/09/uk-retailers-suffer-worst-year-record-job-cuts-store-closuresU.K. Retail Sales See Worst Year on Record in 2019, Data Show
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/retail-sales-see-worst-year-on-record-in-2019-brc-saysChristmas brings little respite for struggling UK high street
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-retail/christmas-gloom-casts-pall-over-british-retail-idUSKBN1Z812SSpring Hill Mall, West Dundee, Illinois Brookfield Properties
The Centre at Salisbury, Salisbury, Maryland Brookfield Properties
Macon Mall, Macon, Georgia Hull Property Group
The Mall at Whitney Field, Leominster, Massachusetts Hull Property Group
Seminole Towne Center, Sanford, Florida Washington Prime Group
Muncie Mall, Muncie, Indiana Washington Prime Group
Ohio Valley Mall, St. Clairsville, Ohio Cafaro Company
Hanes Mall, Winston-Salem, North Carolina CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.
Rivergate Mall, Goodlettsville, Tennessee Hendon Properties
Kings' Shops, Waikoloa Village, Hawaii Jones Lang LaSalle
Indian River Mall, Vero Beach, Florida Kohan Retail Investment Group
Cascade Mall, Burlington, Washington Merlone Geier Partners
Nittany Mall, State College, Pennsylvania Namdar Realty Group
University Mall, Carbondale, Illinois Namdar Realty Group?
Broadway Mall, Hicksville, New York Pacific Retail
The Falls, Miami, Florida (Bloomingdale's) Simon Property Groups
Harrisburg Mall, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania St. John Properties and Petrie Ross Ventures
Pompano Citi Centre, Pompano Beach, Florida Sterling Organization
Northgate Mall, Cincinnati, Ohio Tabani
The Gallery at South DeKalb, Panthersville, Georgia Thor Equities
Towne Square Mall, Owensboro, Kentucky TSM Holdings LLC
Westfield Meriden, Meriden, Connecticut Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield
Somersville Towne Center, Antioch, California Urban Retail Properties
Lewiston Center Mall, Lewiston, Idaho ?
The Village, Prairie Village, Kansas ?
Northside Center, Helena, Montana ?
2 Veterans Memorial Highway, Commack, New York ?
Stow-Kent Plaza, Stow, Ohio ?
54 East Main Street, Walla Walla, Washington ? -
$WBA kom forresten med regnskab i denne uge. Den er ikke specielt dyr ved kurs $55, men den var mere interessant, da den var kortvarigt under $50. Hvis den falder under $50 igen, saa koeber jeg sandsynligvis. Det kommer an paa, om der er bedre tilbud paa det tidspunkt.
Walgreens Earnings Slide as It Faces More Competitors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-08/walgreens-earnings-slide-as-drugstore-giant-faces-more-foesWalgreens first-quarter profit falls nearly 25% on higher costs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walgreens-boots-results/walgreens-first-quarter-profit-falls-nearly-25-on-higher-costs-idUSKBN1Z71OGWalgreens Profit Squeezed by Weak Prescription Volumes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/walgreens-sales-rise-but-profit-falls-25-11578486370Walgreens misses profit estimates on pharmacy weakness, shares fall 7%
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walgreens-boots-results/walgreens-misses-profit-estimates-on-pharmacy-weakness-shares-fall-7-idUSKBN1Z71OI -
Der måske også nogle af de gamle konjunktur cycle argumenter der kan gøre sig gældende.
Vi er late business cycle. US er ialtfald.
I late business cycle er det typisk energi, guld, commodities der performer. og defensive aktier.
retail performer typisk i early business cycle.
Fidelity har lidt research på området.
Og så var det noget som tidligere konjunktureksperten (som han kaldte sig) gik meget op i.
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Her er et link til noget meget generelt business cycle overview fra fidelity
Det er meget kort. KE havde sin egen model, det var ikke præcis den samme, men det ligner.
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Slåen Tusind tak. Det er nogle gode figurer. Det er helt bestemt korrekt et langt stykke hen ad vejen. Problemet (for mig!) er i nogen grad at identificere, hvor i cyklus vi er nu og 3-12 maaneder frem i tiden. Jeg har hoert folk snakke om late stage business cycle de seneste 5 aar. Jeg proever til en vis grad at ignorere oekonomi og aktie-markedet som helhed, fordi 1) det trods alt er et marked med aktier og ikke et aktie-marked; formuleret bedre af John Templeton nedenfor og 2) jeg kan alligevel ikke forudsige fremtiden praecist nok.
"A wise investor knows that the stock market is really a market of stocks." - John Templeton
- Relateret til cyklus:
60% of big US corporations say a head count reduction is coming in 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/60percent-of-big-us-corporations-say-head-count-reduction-is-coming-in-2020.htmlNearly all corporate CFOs say the economy is going to slow and the stock market is overvalued
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/deloitte-cfos-say-economy-is-going-to-slow-stock-market-overvalued.html- Relateret til retail:
A tale of two holidays in retail
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3530772-tale-of-two-holidays-in-retailJeg har vedhaeftet et par figurer med den relative udvikling i omsaetningen (per aktie!) i forskellige retail-sektorer paa TTM-basis. J.C. Penney ($JCP) kunne godt se ud til at gaa en stille doed i moede ligesom Sears ($SHLD).
P.S. Aergeligt, at mange skribenter forsvandt (migrerede til FB) ifm pseudo-lukningen af forum paa EI. Den beslutning har jeg stadig ikke forstaaet.
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Ja, jeg er enig, det har heddet late stage i meget lang tid. Problemet er at vide hvor i cycle økonomien ligger. Plus, at cycles ikke udvikler sig ens.
Jeg tror også at denne cycle afviger ved at være drevet så meget af pengemæssig expansion fra nationalbankerne. Det er måske forklaringen på at vi har kunnet være i late cycle så længe.
Fidelity udsender et periodisk nyhedsbrev. Der står en masse fill om planning your retirement.. men hver tredie måned eller så kommer de med deres estimate på hvor vi ligger cycle. Jeg bruger det. Alle kan skrive sig op til at modtage det. Men der er meget man ikke behøver læse!
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Meget interessante betragtninger - tak for dem.
Hvis I ikke selv har været der live kan jeg anbefale at se Jeppe Christiansens årlige foredrag på MAJ Invests årlige investortræf:
https://www.majinvest.dk/kontakt-og-information/se-videoer/the-big-picture-2019/
Jeg synes han er genialt god til at forklare de generelle mekanismer og trends. En af de ting han gør meget ud af er at slå fast at selvom vi nu har oplevet en uhørt langvarig global højkonjunktur forventer han at den vil fortsætte en god tid endnu. Han forklarer det blandt andet med at selvom det har været en lang højkonjunktur, så har den årlige vækst været behersket, og derfor kan perioden med højkonjunktur køre så langt. -
Urban Outfitters Slumps After Holiday Store Sales Slump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/urban-outfitters-is-latest-retailer-to-see-grinch-crimp-marginTed Baker lenders call for help at ailing retail chain
https://news.sky.com/story/ted-baker-lenders-call-for-help-at-ailing-retail-chain-11903703
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