S&P 500 ex energy

[XJK]

I en tidligere IFTA-tråd (Status pr. Børsluk 2016.01.22) blev der listet 5 stadier af fornægtelse:

The 5 Stages of Recession Denial

1. The economy and consumer are strong, a recession is not possible.
2. It is merely a mid-cycle slowdown, there will be a strong recovery in the next quarter.
3. There's a noticeable slowdown in one sector but "ex" that sector the economy is doing fine. Plus, that sector only accounts for a small portion of the overall economy.
4. Yes, there will be a recession but it will certainly be shallow.
5. Holy crap!!!! Why didn't I see this coming???

Se: http://www.proinvestor.com/boards/74137/Status-pr-Boersluk-20160122

Jvf. pkt. 3, så er energi og olie som bekendt sendt helt i dørken, og hvordan ville S&P 500 se ud, hvis man lod som om energi ikke var en del af regnestykket? Det har Ed Yardini og Joe Abbott set på i en publikation fra i går:

http://www.yardeni.com/pub/sap500ex10.pdf

Ex energi og olie ser det jo slet ikke så slemt ud ;o)

[XJK]

Og ugens skriv fra FactSet:

http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_2.12.16/at_download/file

Forward P/E for S&P 500 på 14.7, hvilket er over det 10-årige gennemsnit på 14.2. Men det er med en energisektor med en forward P/E på 45.3! Financials på 10.6, Telecom Service på 12.8.

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

Kan du forklare lidt omkring det med energisektoren og en forward P/E på 45,3%?

[XJK]

Tallet er fra side 11 afsnittet om 'Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 14.7, above the 10-Year Average (14.2)'

Forward P/E for energisektoren er på 45.3 mod et 10-årigt snit på 13.6.

FactSet publiceres hver fredag og er - så vidt jeg husker - baseret på lukkekursen torsdag.

[XJK]

Og fra siden 5 afsnittet 'Energy: Largest Contributor to Earnings Decline for the S&P 500'

'The Energy sector is reporting the largest year-over-year decline in earnings (-74.0%) of all ten sectors. Six of the seven sub-industries are reporting a year-over-year drop in earnings: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (-179%), Coal & Consumable Fuels (-144%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (-70%), Integrated Oil & Gas (-67%), Oil & Gas Drilling (-45%), and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-22%). On the other hand, the Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (29%) is the only sub-industry reporting earnings growth for the quarter.

This sector is also the largest contributor to the earnings decline for the S&P 500 as a whole. If the Energy sector is excluded, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 would improve to 2.4% from -3.7%.'

I samme periode er kurserne for selskaberne i energisektoren raslet ned - earnings er bare faldet endnu hurtigere :o(

[XJK]

Et par S&P 500 selskaber i storage & transportation (og samtidigt i andre delsektorer typisk raffinering - så det er ikke pure play storage & transportation):

Kinder Morgan Inc.
http://ir.kindermorgan.com/

Marathon Petroleum
http://ir.marathonpetroleum.com/

Phillips 66
http://investor.phillips66.com/investors/overview/

Columbia Pipeline Group Inc
http://investors.cpg.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253997&p=irol-irhome

Spectra Energy Corp.
http://investors.spectraenergy.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=204494&p=irol-irhome

Tesoro Petroleum Co.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79122&p=irol-IRHome

Valero Energy
http://www.valero.com/InvestorRelations/Pages/Home.aspx

Et par selskaber uden for S&P 500:

VTTI Energy Partners LP
http://www.vttienergypartners.com/

Royal Vopak NV
https://www.vopak.com/investors

Magellan Midstream Partners LP
https://www.magellanlp.com/investors.aspx

Og en familieejet:

Marquard & Bahls AG
http://www.marquard-bahls.com/marquard_bahls/en/home/

Oiltanking GmbH (ejet af Marquard & Bahls)
http://www.oiltanking.com/Oiltanking/en/home/index.php

[Helge_LarsenPI-redaktør]

Tak XJK. Jeg har fået "lidt" at læse på i weekende.

[XJK]

Og apropos Kinder Morgen:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3901606-kinder-morgan-warren-buffett-buyer