Market update
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Market update 15.nov.2015.
Let's start with US Dollar .
Weekly chart. Dollar has been consolidating through 2015 in what might turn out to be a Bull-flag.
The cycle is at a bottom and we should see it turning up in 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p34095880921&a=209968877&r=1447581322616&cmd=print
On monthly chart the cycle is still in uptrend and should be some years ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&st=1980-02-22&en=today&id=p45218146526&a=390966643&r=1447581677272&cmd=print
Dollar vs. Bond Yields.
For many years corrections to the upside in Dollar has been leading corrections to the upside in Bond Yields.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST20Y&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p68565254746&a=399080039&r=1447581827531&cmd=print
2 Year Bond Yield has been rising last couple of Years while longer term Yields has been in a choppy sideway pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1447582204431&cmd=print
The cycle in 30 Year Bond Yield is up and will be well into 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TYX&p=M&st=1986-01-13&en=today&id=p46376255242&a=331626627&r=1447582394520&cmd=print
30 Year Bond Price is under pressure to the downside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USB&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p53263513541&a=235025241&r=1447582533353&cmd=print
Some Commodities.
Copper. Will we see Fibonacci support here ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p22881845114&a=296488965&r=1447582812934&cmd=print
Light Crude Oil also down at a Fibonacci level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p78084205633&a=377001313&r=1447582916767&cmd=print
Silver, monthly down at 200 MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p64927885479&a=305537758&r=1447583089060&cmd=print
Natural Gas close to Horizontal level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p98871543650&a=334241781&r=1447583249069&cmd=print
CRB Index close to horizontal level from 1999 and 2002.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26400550788&a=221376440&r=1447583652070&cmd=print
Commodity Index CRB vs. US Dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p19261347039&a=380506604&r=1447584979871&cmd=print
The spread between Stocks and Commodities is stretched to the extreme and it can't continue forever.
This could signal some rebound for Commodities in 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43094547251&a=251788917&r=1447585092241&cmd=print
Some Indexes:
Global Auto Index(weekly) loose strength.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CARZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80418821097&a=370336516&r=1447595476104&cmd=print
German DAX (monthly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p28209203923&a=241211093&r=1447595650448&cmd=print
Nasdaq Composite. (monthly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p75934912218&a=263062341&r=1447595899766&cmd=print
NYSE Composite Index. 2 charts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p49521858960&a=228555128&r=1447595983731&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&id=p62495551708&a=214810757&r=1447597074109&cmd=print
Midcap Index(daily).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPTSEM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69162585554&a=274175566&r=1447596104177&cmd=print
S-P Retail Index (daily).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p34645754558&a=227870436&r=1447596156927&cmd=print
Retail (monthly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RTH&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p77441393661&a=254303027&r=1447596380729&cmd=print
Wilshire 5000 (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1447596254118&cmd=print
Baltic Dry Index. Still no strength.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BDI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p30025924218&a=220135997&r=1447596575991&cmd=print
Now it's time for Real Estate and Building.
US Building Materials and Fixtures Index. Is it slowly rolling over ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSBD&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p20533198928&a=368522782&r=1447596816886&cmd=print
Same pattern in Dynamic Building and Construction Intellidex.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40847002755&a=368656723&r=1447596898407&cmd=print
Real Estate.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1447597210455&cmd=print
Finally the Stock / Bond Ratio.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24USB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p91692542797&a=382924400&r=1447670330439&cmd=print
Agriculturals. In the big picture Agriculture moves in 30 Year cycles. With bottoms in 1909,1939,1969,1999 and the next is expected in 2029.
In crops we have the GKX Agricultural Spot Price Index and it has finished the uptrend from 1999.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GKX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p70800510517&a=389981438&r=1447670463685&cmd=print
And Livestock Spot Price Index GVX has a similar pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GVX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p42345508031&a=390065730&r=1447670635587&cmd=print
Lean Hogs (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BCOMLH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p52975082443&a=266600527&r=1447670827931&cmd=print
Live cattle (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BCOMLC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p18628414019&a=266601221&r=1447670915008&cmd=printWar cycle - IS and political cycle.
War cycle is in uptrend until 2020.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/media/mam/2015/3260/war-cycle-lg.jpg
IS is still gaining strength.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2014/06/ECM-Islamic-State-Wave-10.jpg
Europe is on the move from Bureaucracy to CHAOS.
https://billedeupload.dk/images/gF1S4.pngnfø
https://www.facebook.com/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles-168152833231786 -
1.kvartal = Euro'ens kollaps.
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