Lidt charts

nfø

Market update July.2015.

Some pressure is coming to the US economy.
First: higher US-Dollar hurts Export.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ABOOK-March-2015-ExIm-Exports-Recent.jpg
Second: higher Long Term Bond Yields hurts Construction & Real Estate.

US Building Material s Fixtures Index we have a Divergence on RSI vs. Price and the index is losing steam.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSBD&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p20533198928&a=368522782&r=1433532880360&cmd=print

Dynamic Building Construction Intellidex about to roll over too ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40847002755&a=368656723&r=1433533271791&cmd=print

US Real Estate has been weak since early 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1433534208017&cmd=print

US real Estate vs. 30 other countries.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1437298612469&cmd=print

Latest on Employment:
http://econsnapshot.com/2015/06/05/employment-gains-long-duration-unemployment-remains/#comments

Retail (daily) is in Down-trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93553207925&a=252394011&r=1433533436961&cmd=print

Retail (Monthly) is quite extended.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RTH&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p77441393661&a=254303027&r=1433533551806&cmd=print

Global Auto Index find it hard to make new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CARZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80418821097&a=370336516&r=1433534353931&cmd=print

Railroad and Transportation Index has been weak since start of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSRR&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48340548768&a=228774040&r=1433532446982&cmd=print

NYSE Composite Index (monthly) . RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicates that the Index is in a topping process.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p49521858960&a=228555128&r=1433533708901&cmd=print

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&id=p87768943780&a=214810757&r=1433534028086&cmd=print

German DAX (daily) tested support at 200 MA and is now above 50 MA again.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09866691438&a=211163269&r=1433534707156&cmd=print

Nasdaq Composite (monthly) Divergence on RSI vs. Price.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p75934912218&a=263062341&r=1433534917186&cmd=print

Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Equal weight has previously broken down in advance of corrections in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67675830772&a=299356839&r=1437298373768&cmd=print

Wilshire 5000 (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1433535205262&cmd=print

Some of the indicators signals a possible correction in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p09411275573&a=243698081&r=1433535386805&cmd=print
Higher Bond Yields puts pressure on Dividend Stocks.

18 is a crucial number when you look at cycles in US-Dollar.
On the weekly chart I have added the 18 Month cycle which is at a top at the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1430651492085&cmd=print

On the monthly chart I have added the 18 Year cycle which will have the next top at approximately Year 2020. ( It seems that 17 Years is the exact number.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&st=1980-02-22&en=today&id=p45218146526&a=390966643&r=1430652203580&cmd=print

Short term (daily) the Dollar is in Down-trend and will be towards the end of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91924918603&a=225033797&r=1433530874796&cmd=print

On the Bond side we have an interesting setup in Yield Curve. Yield on Long Term Bonds rice faster than Short Term Bonds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1433706441747&cmd=print

The Yield Curve on 5 vs. 30 year Bond Yield tells us we might face weak economy again. Used the slope indicator as leading Indicator of the Yield Curve.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p32897108122&a=408381414&r=1431720689814&cmd=print

Same chart with SP-500 added.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p89659688584&a=408381414&r=1437297844254&cmd=print

Martin Prings inflation Index.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!PRII&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10606342747&a=369860779&r=1437298680267&cmd=print

Larry Edelson on Deflation.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/deflation-picking-even-momentum-71568#.VXg8r0YYnR8

MARTIN ARMSTRONG, once a US based trillion dollar financial adviser, used the number pi to predict economic turning points with precision. When some big New York bankers asked him to join the club to help them to take over Russia, he refused to join the manipulation. A few days later the FBI stormed his offices accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi Scheme - an attempt to stop him talking about the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the US has built up over the years and which he thinks starts to collapse after October 1, 2015, a major pi turning point he is predicting.
http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/kanaluebersicht/500#/beitrag/video/2391132/M-Armstrong-über-die-"göttliche-Formel"

http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-forecaster/

http://theforecaster-interactive.com/

Economic Conference
http://armstrongeconomics.com/conferences-dvds/world-economic-conference-october-2015/

Herbert Hoover's memoir.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Memoirs-Herbert-Hoover-Depression-1929-1941/dp/1447402472/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1430979560&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Memoirs+of+Herbert+Hoover

Have a nice summer.
Niels.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786