Market update.
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Market Update March 2015.
Let's start with Agriculturals.
Agricultural Index Spot Price (Crops) had a top in 2011.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GKX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p70800510517&a=389981438&r=1425761878838&cmd=print
As Agriculturals made a lower high in 2013, US Farmland prices made a top in 2013.
https://dentresearch.s3.amazonaws.com/EconomyandMarkets/images/021015_ENM.jpg
And US farmland prices drop for the first time in 28 Years.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/midwest-land-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-28-years--7972.html
Livestock Index has done very well, but we might have a top in 2014. At the moment the cycle is down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GVX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p52260981682&a=390065730&r=1425762122284&cmd=printBonds.
Cycle in 30 Year T-bond Yield is at a cycle bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=M&st=1986-01-13&en=today&id=p46376255242&a=331626627&r=1425762724886&cmd=print
Next chart presents 2, 5, 10 and 30 Treasure Yield
and 2 Year Yield has been rising for last year while the others has been dropping.
Also notice the vertical lines where bottom in Bond Yield coincide with bottom in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1425762873925&cmd=print
Dollar.
As Yields in Europe area (ECB) is negative, then higher Yields in US gives strength to Dollar as we will see in this chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p89117091858&a=225033797&r=1425986408999&cmd=print
The strength in Dollar is getting a bit extended Both on weekly and monthly charts.
Weekly with a cycle top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1425986584441&cmd=print
Monthly at some resistance lines. If these are broken there is free play to the upside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&st=1980-02-22&en=today&id=p39809188971&a=390966643&r=1425986766147&cmd=printWill the stimulus from ECB bring capital to US as Yield are higher here ? Probably yes and this will add more fuel to Dollar and US assets.
Looking at Real Estate.
The average cycle in Real Estate is 18 Years. These 18 Years consists of 14 Year uptrend, 2 year downtrend and 2 year consolidation into the next uptrend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSRE&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p85488576834&a=390012627&r=1425987239033&cmd=print
Article.
http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/mrep/images/TheGreat18YearRealEstateCycle.jpg
After some consolidation, Home Construction made a breakout to the upside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSHB&p=M&yr=12&mn=2&dy=0&id=p56756042670&a=257202355&r=1425988223369&cmd=printHousing Starts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$$HSNGSTARTS&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p51349308861&a=308002271&r=1426010970691&cmd=printUS real Estate vs. 30 other countries.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1425988306554&cmd=printStock / Bond Ratio. Still not in favor of SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$USB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p91692542797&a=382924400&r=1425989292089&cmd=printSP-500 (monthly): We are getting some divergence between RSI and Price and also crossing on MACD. And I think we will see some correction within a few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p71828158933&a=212096943&r=1425973880131&cmd=printGerman DAX. With IHS pattern and now almost at 1. Target.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09866691438&a=211163269&r=1426011645668&cmd=print
DAX weekly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p78617011065&a=378135729&r=1426011775252&cmd=print
NYSE Composite Index losing steam.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p49521858960&a=228555128&r=1426012166128&cmd=printThis chart presents CRB commodity prices for over 100 Years and we can see the latest uptrend is at an important support which need to hold. Otherwise we face real deflation.
And this deflationary environment could last 10 years.
http://alphabaskets.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2015.3.5_PringTurner-Chart.pngAnd as usual something else.
Martin Armstrong quote:
They will raise rate if the US share market breaks out to the upside as is taking place in the DAX. Likewise, let the stock market fall and then I get questions from Capitol Hill - "Do you think the Fed should be intervening?" Why? Because that is the ONLY thing that directly impacts those on the Hill - they all have investments and are part of that 1% they pretend to hate so much. HOUSEHOLD income of $400,000 places you in that 1%. It is not the Billionaire's Club. That income is investment income not wages. It is what Obama wants to tax more - capital gains he touts as the loophole for the rich. So it may be nice to contemplate that the Fed will not raise rates and be worldly about this entire mess. At the end of the day, Congress and the US media will have their heads if they do not raise rates in the face of a blast up in the US share market values.
The end of the EURO:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/09/can-the-euro-survive-beyond-2018/The Forecaster. Movie rated 8,4 out of 10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byGEOiBz1RM&feature=youtu.behttp://www.dochouse.org/film-screening/The-Forecaster/435
Regards
nfø
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